News coverage shows a divided electorate in Argentina, with public sentiment split in two large blocs. The confidence of voters in the Simultaneous and Mandatory Open Primary Elections (PASO) shifted dramatically, placing the far-right candidate Javier Milei of La Libertad Avanza at the top with 30.2% of affiliations, surpassing expectations. Milei called for broad participation, presenting his liberal revolution as a rallying cry for change. PASO results are widely interpreted as a barometer of party support. The elections on October 22 are seen as shaping the path forward, influencing the strategy of emerging coalitions. Patricia Bullrich, representing the traditional right, emerged as the standard bearer in a contest that edged out the Buenos Aires mayor Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, who captured about 28% of the vote.
Sergio Massa, the governing Peronist nominee and incumbent economy minister, faced the realities of a country dealing with high inflation and ongoing poverty. With inflation running around 120% annually and roughly 40% of the population living in poverty, Massa drew 21.2% of votes, while his internal rival, Juan Grabois, collected around 6%. Together, they reached roughly 27%, a modest figure for the Unión por la Patria coalition’s aspirations. The dialogue during the campaign emphasized questions about economic strategy and social protection, including debates about how best to support national industry, workers, and universities while ensuring care for retirees. Milei’s supporters argued for a rapid shift toward private enterprise and market-based reforms, while moderates urged a more measured approach to reform.
In campaign rhetoric and public statements, Milei projected a program centered on reducing regulatory burdens and promoting individual entrepreneurship. His message resonated with voters who felt left behind by prior policies. The movement appealed to those disillusioned by traditional political rhetoric, framing itself as a break from the established political caste. A notable quote from Milei during celebrations underscored the sense of electoral momentum and a desire for swift change. Analysts noted that Milei’s appeal extended beyond economic proposal to a cultural critique of political elites, tapping into frustrations that echo across segments of society. The campaign highlighted concerns about labor, education quality, and industry competitiveness, while opponents warned about the risks of rapid reform.
Observers highlighted the reach of Milei’s message in major urban and provincial centers, including Santa Fe, Córdoba, and the Buenos Aires metropolitan area, where his supporters responded with enthusiasm. The former candidate’s focus on entrepreneurship and skepticism toward expansive government found a ready audience among young voters, including first-time registrants who represent a portion of the national electorate.
During the race, Milei’s coalition emphasized a stance on security and a provocative tone toward social justice policies. The vice-presidential candidate, Victoria Villarruel, held firm in opposing prosecutions related to human rights concerns tied to past periods of state violence, a position that did not deter some Argentines from supporting Milei. If Milei secures a strong showing in the first round on October 22, his party could gain substantial influence in both chambers of Congress. Some observers cautioned that a premature projection of victory might overlook potential shifts before the electoral date.
From Campaign Trails to Parliament
As a political outsider with a background in economics, Milei advocated for extensive privatization, questioned climate policies, and entertained controversial proposals. His rhetoric appealed to a segment of voters seeking fundamental changes in governance and economic management, particularly in regions with deep concerns about public expenditure and regulatory regimes. His message resonated with those who felt the traditional political class had failed to address urgent needs, creating momentum for his movement in key provinces.
Supporters used the slogan Caste Is Afraid to express their view that entrenched interests were resistant to reform. Milei’s triumphal tone included references to a new political era and a repudiation of past approaches. The Economist summarized Milei’s strategic aim as creating a competitive alternative capable of challenging parasitic political dynamics and perceived waste within the system. Observers noted a broad appeal that extended beyond economic policy to a broader sense of political renewal.
Support for Milei extended to a segment of voters who felt overwhelmed by lingering political theatrics and social division. The campaign drew attention to leadership style and a demand for clearer accountability and transparency. Milei allegedly celebrated the prospect of returning to a more limited governmental footprint and emphasized the role of private initiative in driving growth. The campaign also attracted a large cohort of first-time voters who represented a small but growing share of the national register.
During the campaign, Milei reiterated his stance on policy priorities, while his running mate emphasized positions on past human rights prosecutions. The campaign’s tone reflected a belief in decisive action and a departure from the status quo. If Milei performs well in the first round, observers expect that his influence could extend across both houses of Congress, potentially reshaping the national political landscape. Some commentators warned that early victories could prompt rapid aftershocks in the political system.
Tradition and the Political Right
The traditional right rallied behind Bullrich, signaling a desire to steer the country toward stability amid hardship. Supporters framed the contest as a chance to enact significant reforms while maintaining critical guardrails against corruption and fiscal excess. The call for a fundamental transformation harked back to the heroic rhetoric of years past, with leaders recalling the need to redefine the balance between state intervention and private enterprise. Mauricio Macri, a former president associated with the center-right, publicly acknowledged Milei’s momentum while stopping short of embracing his agenda, signaling a divided but consequential landscape for the right.
Looking ahead, pundits noted that Magellan-like shifts in public opinion could redefine the political map. While the traditional right showed resilience, it faced a decline in some regions compared to previous cycles. The evolving dynamics suggest a crucial period ahead as parties reposition and lay groundwork for potential coalitions and negotiations in parliament.
Possible Scenarios
Turnout in PASO reached about 69%, roughly 1.4 million voters fewer than in 2019, a trend that raised questions about political engagement and turnout patterns. The ruling party faced headwinds, with mercato and currency considerations adding to the pressure on government policy. On the same Sunday night, analysts anticipated continued volatility in the currency markets, as the peso fluctuated in response to evolving expectations. Some forecasts suggested the any additional movements could influence the political climate through the week. The broader question remained whether the government could sustain stability amid market tensions while pursuing reform.