The effects of the first debate between president Joe Biden and his November opponent, Donald Trump, reverberate beyond the Democratic party. Political alignment shifts are visible, and predictive models from the televised clash suggest a strengthening of support for Trump from far right voices in Latin America, including Argentina’s Javier Milei, who positions himself as a global celebrity. Milei is pushing his influence toward the Republican candidate as part of a broader strategic move.
To align with these ambitions, Milei will attend a Conservative Political Action Conference CPAC event in the Brazilian city of Camboriú, in Santa Catarina. His initial and enthusiastic encounter with Trump occurred at a CPAC gathering in Washington earlier this year. Milei’s Brazil visit marks a deliberate move, mirroring a pattern seen when he traveled to Madrid to participate in a Vox event last May, where he escalated confrontations against Spain’s prime minister Pedro Sánchez. This trip, which also involved interactions with Brazil’s current president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, follows exchanges with Brazilian leadership and media figures.
Milei shows no shortage of bravado when provoking opponents. In Buenos Aires, observers noted this as part of a growing far right sentiment in Argentina and the region, signaling that a Trump victory could bring financial support to Milei’s bold program. The Argentine former TV commentator plans to appear at CPAC meetings and meet with the retired ex-leader who was invited to Milei’s inauguration last December, while the Brazilian government presses Argentina over the alleged protection of bolsonaristas wanted by justice for their role in the January 8, 2023, attempted coup. The conspirators crossed the border months earlier.
Mejor Bolsonaro que Lula
Milei has chosen to raise the stakes by picking CPAC over the Mercosur summit, a bloc that Argentina and Brazil lead and that also includes Uruguay and Paraguay. The Mercosur meeting would take place on Friday in one of those countries. A presidential spokesman explained Milei is not traveling due to schedule considerations and to avoid overloading his agenda.
Some suggest Milei is using irony to describe a preference for meeting Bolsonaro rather than Lula after labeling Lula comic and corrupt. The Argentine president refused to retract his remarks and embraced Bolsonaro’s rhetoric, arguing that what he said was true and that political correctness has gone too far to silence criticism.
The matter is framed as a political provocation. Lula had previously avoided greetings with Milei during a recent G7 summit, saying Milei should apologize to Brazil and to Argentina for the many statements he made. He also emphasized that Argentina is a friend whose interests matter to Brazil, and rejected personal attacks that could harm shared ties. The new phase of relations between Argentina and Brazil shows a cautious approach, yet tensions persist as Lula’s administration assists Brazil in addressing an energy emergency while Milei pursues a more assertive diplomatic posture.
A Brazilian and Argentine lens on the possible shift in U.S. leadership was reported by the paulista newspaper Folha, which noted ministers and government members in Lula’s circle weighing the impact if Trump returns to the White House. The first U.S. policy shift could affect Argentina, with concerns that ties might deteriorate. Brazil is believed to think that a Trump victory would help Milei secure the dollars needed to implement his ambitious program.
Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, a scholar of international politics, argues that Milei’s era reflects a return to a clash of civilizations mindset and a higher profile for religion and reactionary ideas in foreign policy. A Milei-led government in the United States could reinforce these orientations on the global stage.
Of course, a harsher rivalry with Lula could carry costs for Buenos Aires. Argentina and Brazil share an automotive trade framework that is now under review and could be tested by political shifts. Some Brazilian media outlets suggest tamping down such ties to avoid a broader disruption to regional industry, a stance that could reshape economic partnerships in the near term.
Crisis with Bolivia
The region is also watching Bolivia, which summoned its ambassador to Argentina this week after labeling a failed coup against President Luis Arce as a false accusation. La Paz condemned the remarks as unfriendly and reckless, while Argentina, through Milei’s camp, had labeled the conspiracy as fraudulent and implausible because the governing MAS party controls multiple power centers. The situation underscores a tense moment in South American diplomacy as economic and political interests align uneasily with the shifting rhetoric of Milei and his allies.