In line with political shifts seen elsewhere, Argentina’s path toward a general election in October is leaning toward a broad center-right to right spectrum, with a greater variety of ultra-right voices and some doom-laden rhetoric. A Trotskyist minority on the far left stands out as a regional anomaly, an exception to the prevailing trend. Recent events have reshaped the political map, underscored by rising poverty, social tensions, and inflation, along with the looming threat of a sharp price jump. The dollar holds sway over the electoral terrain and sets the terms for the October contest.
Peronism has held power since December 2019. Economy Minister Sergio Massa is now a presidential candidate with the weight of incumbency behind him. A contemporary biography titled Power Upstart by Sergio Genoud hints at Massa’s early influences. Massa grew up amid currents within the Unión de Centro Democrático (UCD), a right-leaning bloc from the late 1980s. The era of Carlos Menem and the Kirchners’ ascendancy in the early 2000s shaped his trajectory, including a period serving Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. A later disagreement on pension fund nationalization prompted his departure from that role in the cabinet, and by 2013 their paths diverged again.
Massa attempted a bid for the presidency in a later cycle without success. He aligned with businessman Mauricio Macri as a leading figure when the latter led the government. Massa’s faction, the Front for Renewal, helped secure congressional votes to restart foreign borrowing. Yet his alliance later fractured. A nickname describing his political maneuvering emerged: a habit of zigzagging back toward Cristina Kirchner, raising questions about his consistency in public life amid long-running grudges. His candidacy sparked broader debates about the legal and ethical lines in politics, especially in the context of investigations facing the current president Alberto Fernández and his clashes with the vice president.
a tough drink
The naming of Massa to compete in the Peronist primaries, alongside a smaller rival in social leader Juan Grabois, presents a stubborn hurdle for Kirchnerists. The pragmatism of Massa provokes dissent from the party base. Fernández de Kirchner had once deflected some ideological hard lines, recalling the brutal years of the dictatorship and the disappearances associated with that era. Massa, by contrast, has argued for recognizing those traumatic episodes in the proper historical frame. He has suggested that memory should be part of the constitutional and civic conversation, not merely a political point.
Here, saints and angels are not remembered; instead the focus is on the political militants who disappeared because of their beliefs. pic.twitter.com/KGycb5sWGL
— Cristina Kirchner (@CFKArgentina) 26 June 2023
The fate of the Peronist coalition will largely hinge on the economic results achieved in the months ahead. August primaries demand a calmer scenario than the current climate, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreement playing a central role. The IMF is expected to return roughly $10,000 million, a crucial factor in shaping the electoral landscape.
Panorama on the right
Fernández de Kirchner argues that the ideological drift within society makes Massa a dependable business partner and that his arrival at a high office could position him as a stronger contender than the current Home Secretary Wado de Pedro, who has resisted some of Massa’s ambitions. Polls so far show limited support for that track. As the political year unfolds, the outcome will depend on how internal tensions within the traditional right are managed.
Together for Change, a key coalition, presents two mayoral contenders for Buenos Aires: Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich, a former security minister under Mauricio Macri. Both carry Peronist roots. Larreta served in a Menem-era administration, while Bullrich’s path crossed with the Montoneros era in the 1970s. Over time Bullrich’s stance moderated, though his tough-on-crime positions left a lasting impression. Peronism nudges Bullrich forward as the preferred preselection candidate for the right, with forecasts suggesting her candidacy could polarize the vote and boost Massa’s chances in turn.
THE SECURITY REVOLUTION speaks to a sense of fear in Argentina today. The national government is perceived as unresponsive, while some observers argue that freedom requires decisive action. The call is for urgent measures in the areas most affected by crime and insecurity, and to address the daily anxieties that shape public opinion.
— Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (@horaciorlarreta) 27 June 2023
Larreta, meanwhile, narrows the field for the government candidate’s options. He feels closer philosophically to Massa than to Bullrich and vows to end Kirchnerism, offering a more tempered rhetoric than before. A recent push by economist Javier Milei has forced him to harden his stance to preserve ties. Some polls indicate the far right may not surpass second place. If that scenario holds, Milei will be seen as having energized the center-left space and compelled opponents to respond more forcefully to their own positions.