“Chairman, (Sergio) Massa chairman,” the Peronists sang on Sunday night, softly echoing the tune of a Rod Stewart classic. Massa’s surprising near seven-point lead over far-right rival Javier Milei in the Argentine presidential race stunned many observers. He advanced to a second round with 36.68 percent of the votes, an outcome many had considered unlikely just days earlier. In a country where about 40 percent live in poverty and inflation runs near 150 percent, Massa’s ascent to the runoff reshaped the political horizon. The field remains open for November 19, and outcomes remain uncertain for the modernization of the economy, social programs, and the country’s path forward.
1. Economic factor
Massa achieved an unlikely victory, with observers remarking that he burned several political science playbooks in the process. A Harvard Kennedy School case study, cited by Ignacio Fidanza of La Política Online, illustrated how Peronism’s August primaries had seemed to seal his defeat. Yet Massa pressed forward with measures aimed at easing household budgets: a 21 percent reimbursement on supermarket purchases, monthly cash support for seven million retirees, fixed sums for private-sector workers, and improvements for roughly 2.7 million informal workers; additional government aid for vulnerable families and a push to boost domestic tourism.
In addition, the administration delayed increases in utilities and transportation, eliminated income tax for many, and benefited higher-earning sectors. Massa presented himself as distinct from a government gripping with an economy in distress, while the IMF supported refinancing of the $45 billion loan contracted by a prior administration. Massa cast a broad reform, emphasizing expanded public spending while downplaying earlier deficit targets. Critics and commentators highlighted the political cost of deploying public resources for electoral advantage, with some columnists noting the visible impact on the electoral landscape.
2. Reasons
Milei’s stance provoked anxiety among millions who worried about a potential shift toward a dollarized, minimal-state model. His early rhetoric about currency and economic reform suggested dramatic changes, including provocative remarks about the peso and dramatic proposals on education and social policy. The campaign included contentious exchanges with religious leadership and questions about church-state relations; the Vatican’s involvement drew public attention, with clergy mobilized in support of established social norms. Concerns about gender rights and the memory of past authoritarian periods further polarized voters.
Advocates for Libertad Avanza proposed radical policies on education funding and family rights, sparking a debate over what parental financing should cover and how personal responsibilities are shared. Analysts noted that Argentines, faced with rising prices and job insecurity, were listening closely to every claim. One influential observer, Ernesto Tenembaum, captured the mood: fear about rapid change and the need to guard stability.
3. Peronism woke up
In 2021, Peronism lost substantial ground in parliamentary races, and the August primaries intensified disaffection among traditional supporters. Massa’s campaign managed to reclaim a portion of those votes as turnout rose, driven by increased political engagement from 70 to 78 percent. The Milei phenomenon also energized unions, a traditional pillar of Peronist strength, leading to a more active labor-right voice in the campaign. Youth and women, particularly in Buenos Aires Province, played pivotal roles in this dynamic. Gobernador Axel Kicillof secured reelection with about 45 percent, signaling that Peronism could rebound even amid broader economic hardships. A recent controversy over a high-profile trip involving a former official did not derail Massa’s momentum, and Peronism began to show strength again in other provinces.
With renewed urban and rural support, Peronism aimed to consolidate gains in the provincial map, even as economic strain persisted and scandals threatened credibility. The coalition’s resurgence reflected a broader revival of traditional political ties amid a volatile national mood.
4. An issue that is not unique to Argentina
The prospect of Milei’s victory raised concerns beyond Argentina’s borders. Regional players watched closely as leaders weighed how policy shifts might influence Latin America’s political economy. Leaders in neighboring countries considered how a major Argentine shift could affect regional markets, currency dynamics, and bilateral alliances. Global observers noted the strategic importance of Argentina’s central bank and macroeconomic stabilization efforts as part of a broader regional fabric. Economic liaisons, security partnerships, and diplomatic channels saw heightened activity as analysts evaluated potential spillovers and policy alignments.
The Vatican’s position, and statements from major world leaders, underscored how the election touched questions of democracy, social policy, and international relations. High-level diplomacy continued as presidents and prime ministers discussed the implications of any economic pivot for the exchange rate, inflation, and poverty reduction.
5. Possible scenarios
Analysts cautioned against over-optimism following Massa’s initial success, warning that momentum must be supported by solid economic results. The central goal remains to prevent a broad right-wing coalition from consolidating support for Milei, while also bridging gaps with moderate and center-right voters. Milei’s allies suggested a more conciliatory posture, while maintaining a sharp critique of state spending. The race would hinge on perceptions of competence, integrity, and the ability to deliver tangible relief to households under pressure. As the campaign progresses, Massa will need to present a credible plan for a unified administration that can attract center-left and center-right voters alike. If the economy strengthens, the run to November 19 could become a turning point for the country.
For now, Peronism holds a majority in Congress, though its margin remains fragile, demanding negotiation with a fragmented legislature. The path to legislative cohesion will likely involve concessions and cross-party collaboration, akin to solving a riddle that requires balancing competing demands and interests. The political theater will continue to unfold as the election nears, with economic signals playing a decisive role in shaping voter sentiment and the ultimate outcome.