Iran avoids direct conflict with Israel and the US, escalating tensions in the Middle East with attacks by relevant militias

With Hezbollah inside LebanonWith whom relations have existed since the 1980s, Soleimani created what would later be called the ‘Islamic Union’.Resistance Axis‘: the umbrella of militias across the region TeheranThey would fight the same enemy, United States of AmericaI just landed and Israelhistorical rival.

Companies were coming. Iran encouraged its establishment Popular Mobilization Forces (FMP)First in Iraq and then Syria. These Shiite militias, a shadow state in Iraq, are fighting against the United States and the United States even today. Islamic State on different fronts.

Axis also merged Islamic Jihad And Hamas inside Palestine. The last thing added will be: Houthis inside YemenControlling the majority of the Arab country and for ten years international coalition under the leadership Saudi Arabia And United Arab Emirates.

“The reason why Iran has created this ‘Axis of Resistance’ is not because Iran has expansionist ambitions. This coalition is completely a defensive toolA strategy that Tehran calls ‘fake strategy’forward defense‘”, To explain Ali Vaezthink tank member international Crisis Group.

“Iran is an important country in the region, but their military capabilities are weak traditional compared to its competitors. This is why Iran has created this alternative strategy of supporting regional militias. So far this network has worked thanks to a glue that holds it together: common interests. The relationship between Iran and the axis is not like that of a teacher and his puppets. On the contrary, all these militias decide their actions independently but continue their actions. common strategy “They are coordinating with Iran,” says Vaez.

There are different degrees of friendship within this network. For example, Hezbollah in Lebanon has a relationship with Tehran similar to that between the two countries. NATO alliesAccording to this expert. The Houthis, by contrast, have a long history of ignoring Iranian orders.

“It can be compared to communism In the 20th century. USSR had a leadership role, but communist parties around the world had a certain degree of independence,” he says. Saint of Arashwriter and professor Clemson University. “Tehran is the founder, financethe truth is that have military equipmentand of course the person leading, but there is autonomy among the members,” Azizi continues.

spiral in the region

Thus, since Hamas’s attack on Southern Israel on October 7, the self-proclaimed ‘Axis of Resistance’ has increased all its actions in the region. Middle Eastputs pressure on both the Jewish State and the United States: Hezbollah occasionally attacks Israel across the border between Israel and Lebanon; PMF is bombing especially in Iraq homemade drones Weekly US positions in the north of the Arab country; The Houthis managed to seriously disrupt the order international maritime traffic via the Red Sea. Showing ‘Axis of Resistance’.

“On the one hand, ‘Axis’ managed to show that: action capacity. But at the same time, the network failed to achieve its strategic goals. These were to force Israel to stop the war in Gaza, and the war continues. They then tried to force it by force. stop the fireand none. More generally, the ‘Axis’ wants to expel the USA from the region, but since October 7, Washington has much more in its hands. military weight “In the Middle East,” Vaez explains, “what ‘Axis’ really shows is that I’m not willing to sacrifice by a member of the group. Hezbollah acted very restrained Loop is being devastated. This harms the coalition because it sends the message that every member is dispensable,” this analyst adds.

Iran comes to the stage

Until January, all actions and attacks were carried out by coalition militias; Iran always remained on the sidelines. However, last week the country of Iran bombarded three of its neighbors with ballistic missiles in four days.

“What Iran is doing is answer. Israel attacked Iranian targets many times in recent weeks. The USA assassinated Soleimani. Iran promises revenge but never responds. Therefore, Iran’s latest attacks are an attempt at creation. deterrence to your rivals. However, Pakistan’s reaction to the Iranian bombing shows this: this deterrent failed“, thinks Azizi.

Iran may therefore find itself cornered between a rock and a hard place. “What worries me,” Vaez says, “is that if more and more people in Tehran’s power circles become convinced that Iran does not have a deterrent force, then a logical conclusion can be drawn that the best form of deterrence for the future is Iran. nuclear deterrence. Iran gets closer every day to ending its development atom bomb“.