Iran, Hamas and “plausible deniability”: Did Tehran have anything to do with October 7?

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This much Iranian like Hezbollah They denied any involvement attacks Hamas To Israel as of October 7. Iranian ayatollah said it was a “radically autonomous” operation Ali Khamenei; ““100 percent Palestinian”He assured the leader of the Lebanese militia: Hassan NasrallahHe added that Hamas kept its operation secret. According to Reuters, US secret services came to the same conclusion: Iran and Hezbollah were “caught completely unprepared” for the worst attacks Israel had suffered in half a century.

However, he told this newspaper that the fact that the Islamic Republic does not know the plans of the ‘Al Aqsa Flood’ operation does not mean that it is not an important part of it, that it is not a necessary collaborator to carry it out. Pierre PahlaviProfessor of Defense Studies at the Royal Military College of Canada.

“There is no contradiction between Tehran’s lack of information and at the same time its unwavering support for Hamas. On the contrary, it reflects the logic of Tehran’s indirect strategy. They give their proxies (HezbollahHouthis or Hamas) sufficient operational autonomy action, allowing Iran to maintain ‘plausible deniability’ [‘plausible deniability’] “To avoid possible reprisals,” the analyst explains. Tehran has provided “zealous financial and logistical support” to Palestinian militias for decades.

Hamas’s sources of income

Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement) far from being a puppet group Iranian. To begin with, this is not just an armed wing (Al-Qassam Brigades), but also a political party and a social movement It is based on philanthropy and the provision of basic services to a poor population. It has its own political ideology; a Palestinian nationalism colored by Islam against the occupation. The branch from which Islam came is Sunnism as opposed to Shiism, which is the majority in Iran.

Iran was not his only source of income either. Most of the money he received came from Qatar and people in the Gulf countries. Israel He authorized and encouraged these transactions after Fatah, the rival Palestinian party that controls the West Bank, cut off funding to the Islamist organisation. As the New York Times revealed, Israeli officers came to escort the Qataris to Gaza with briefcases full of money. EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Josep Borrell recently reminded this.

In 2018, Israeli security agents seized a set of documents from a computer belonging to a senior Hamas official that showed an individual’s accounting. private investment fund Money used by the group to finance its operations. He had assets worth millions of dollars. The Palestinian Islamist group controlled mines, chicken farms, and road construction companies in Sudan; Two skyscrapers in the United Arab Emirates; and a real estate company listed on the Turkish stock exchange, among other assets.

The US has launched five rounds of sanctions against those it believes were involved. Hamas’ financial network. The European Union too. On the same Monday, Washington published the names of five more Palestinians who would help effectively transfer money from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard to the Al-Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas, and Islamic Jihad in Gaza.

“Hamas has attempted to leverage various financial transfer mechanisms, including the exploitation of cryptocurrencies, to channel funds. Supporting the group’s terrorist activitiesor,” according to Brian Nelson, Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, reports EFE.

Drones and explosives

Iranian state sources, in their interviews with this newspaper, said that Tehran Weapons are being sent to Hamas. They remember that the Strip is under blockade and its borders are controlled by Israel or Egypt. They claim that the United States and Israel are waging a campaign to discredit Iran.

However, statements from the American think tank Counterterrorism Center at West Point point in the opposite direction. Expert analyst on Shiite militias in a comprehensive report Philip Smyth He assures that although Iran was surprised by Hamas’ attacks, its weapons and devices were the key to the attack.

In his article titled “October Route” he says: “The weapons delivered by Iran to Hamas include Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), rockets, destruction bombs and various ammunition of various models that were smuggled into Gaza and used in October.” 7: How did Iran build and manage the Palestinian ‘axis of resistance’?”

“Training was given from time to time. [de milicianos de Hamás] “In the Republic of Iran and others in Syria or Lebanon with the brothers of Hezbollah,” Telal Naji, secretary general of the General Command of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, said in an interview with an Iranian network in August 2021. -Alam. He boasted that Iran was supplying Hamas with advanced Russian-made weapons. Kornet laser-guided anti-tank missile. “It is not currently known how militants from Hamas or other groups travel to these countries, but it can be assumed that they do so through a network of tunnels, by sea, or through flights that Gazans can take from outside Israel,” he writes. expert.

Relationship ups and downs

relationship between them Iran and Hamas have had their ups and downsQ. The most important of these came with the Syrian war, in which Iran supported guerrillas opposing Sunnis affiliated with the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, which has an ideology similar to Hamas. Between 2012 and 2013, Tehran froze all funds it had sent to Gaza militias, which had become more dependent on Qatar and Turkey. However, this was not enough and they again asked for help from the ayatollahs, which will be fully restored in 2019.

Iran is trying to maintain its influence in the increasingly uneasy region with its support for Hamas. A delicate balance between risks and opportunities. Tensions could help derail the rapprochement process between Arabs and Israelis spurred by the 2020 Abraham Accords. Pierre Pahlavi explains that if progress is made, Tehran will be almost alone in its implicit conflict with Israel. Iran could also benefit from the wave of anti-Americanism stemming from Washington’s support for the Gaza massacre. At the same time, the Hamas attacks revealed that Israel is not an infallible technology and security giant, unable to prevent an attack carried out with basic weapons.

However, Tehran’s attitude towards Palestinian militants carries risks. In the long run, the destruction of Hamas will cause Iran to lose its footing in the region. If the war spreads and other actors such as Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen are involved and affected, the Ayatollah’s regime could be weakened. And we did this after years of trying to survive amid international sanctions and internal democratic revolts.

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