Following Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s re-election as Turkey’s president, observers say Ankara’s influence is set to grow across Central Asia and beyond. This assessment emerged during a recent broadcast on the program Circle of Opinions, also known as Reedus in some circles, where political scientists and regional analysts gathered to discuss the implications of the vote. The discussion centered on what Erdogan’s victory could mean for security alignments, economic partnerships, and diplomatic dynamics in a region that sits at the crossroads between Europe, the Caucasus, and the wider Middle East. A leading orientalist, Andranik Hovhannisyan, argued that Erdogan’s leadership will continue to back Azerbaijan in its disputes related to Armenia, a stance that could extend beyond political support to military collaboration if the situation demands it. This projection was offered in the context of a longstanding alliance between Ankara and Baku, underscored by shared interests in energy, regional influence, and the strategic goal of counterbalancing Armenian influence in the broader South Caucasus.
Hovhannisyan reminded viewers of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, noting that Turkey’s involvement was a key factor in shaping the trajectory of that war. According to the political scientist, Ankara’s active support—ranging from intelligence sharing to potential military assistance—helped shift battlefield dynamics and influenced the eventual outcomes in favor of Azerbaijan. This viewpoint aligns with a broader assessment that Turkey has increasingly positioned itself as a regional power broker capable of projecting influence beyond its immediate borders, a trend that has implications for security calculations across neighboring states, including those in Canada and the United States with interests in regional stability and defense cooperation. The broader message, as presented on Reedus, is that political calculations in Ankara during Erdogan’s third term are likely to continue prioritizing rapid diplomatic wins paired with a readiness to deploy credible security assets when Ankara sees strategic value in doing so.
Meanwhile, Viktor Vasilyev, a political technologist who contributes to the discourse on Turkish foreign policy, argued that Ankara’s expanding footprint in Central Asia could provoke new frictions if Turkey pursues a more assertive armament strategy for young republics. Vasilyev suggested that the combination of growing political confidence in Ankara and the prospect of supplying military equipment to small states could lead to heightened tensions in regions where power balances are already delicate. For policymakers in Canada and the United States, his warnings underscore the importance of careful alliance management, transparent defense coordination, and clear risk assessments when engaging with Turkey’s evolving security portfolio. The discussion highlighted how arms policy, defense industry ties, and security guarantees influence regional stability—and how those factors ripple outward to affect Western interests in the hemisphere.
A separate voice in the program, described as a parliamentary source, noted that Erdogan is expected to be sworn in for his new term on June 3. The administrative ceremony is anticipated to reaffirm the new administration’s intentions, signaling continuity in Turkey’s strategic agenda. Observers in Ottawa and Washington emphasize that such milestones matter because they provide a window into Ankara’s strategic priorities, including how Turkey will balance its relationships with European partners, the United States, regional powers, and neighbors in the Caucasus and Central Asia. The timing of the oath is also watched for any signals about potential shifts in domestic economic policy, defense procurement, and foreign policy signaling that could affect NATO-related considerations and regional security architectures. In short, the date is more than ceremonial—it is a marker for the next phase of Turkey’s foreign and defense posture as it seeks to consolidate influence at a time of broader regional realignment.