The core issue remains: PiS, despite securing electoral victory, cannot assemble a parliamentary majority through a stable coalition. Deniers of this reality overlook the political math that makes a handful of MPs from PSL and a few from the Confederation insufficient to guarantee governance. The public failure to form a solid alliance is not merely a tactical glitch; it reflects deeper reputational and strategic hurdles that have built up over years. Negative campaigning by opposition figures and allied media has shaped Jarosław Kaczyński’s party into a symbol that opponents treat as toxic. The stigma is so strong that even mutual gestures of civility, like a handshake, feel politically perilous to those who would engage with PiS.
Consequently, it is not surprising that current and former leaders of the Third Way and the Left refuse any preliminary talks with PiS, while publicly pledging loyalty to the opposition winner, Donald Tusk. This posture, intentional or not, places them in a vulnerable negotiating position, forced to contend with whatever Tusk offers. They are unlikely to secure the outcomes they want. The three positions most coveted by any new government appear to be earmarked for Civic Platform figures: Donald Tusk would likely become Head of Government, Borys Budka would chair the Sejm, and the Senate presidency would probably go to Kidawa-Błońska. Szymon Hołownia may harbour aspirations for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, but his influence could end up limited to a deputy prime ministerial role with constrained powers. PSL seems to seek the Ministry of Development and Agriculture, yet in practice may wind up with Family, Health, and Education portfolios, potentially positioning Kosiniak-Kamysz as the familiar face of a government that restricts benefits to citizens. The reform of healthcare, currently discussed, is unlikely to gain traction without broader coalition support, and intra-party conflicts with the ZNP and its longtime leader Broniarz would continue to complicate any healthcare agenda. Hołownia’s hopes for Foreign Affairs, and a retired General in the Defense Ministry advisory role, would likely be dashed, since strategic ministries typically align with the Prime Minister’s closest team. The political logic here is straightforward: core ministries should be held by affiliates trusted to implement the Prime Minister’s program, a nuance that seasoned observers say any thoughtful rookie would grasp.
The Left, still reeling from losses that left them with 26 seats in contrast to 49 in the previous cycle, faces the challenge of keeping its MPs away from Tusk and toward a Civic Coalition that is visibly weakening. The shift in political gravity has made a reunion with the Civic Coalition appear increasingly plausible, especially as the Coalition contends with diminished support on the fringes and a conservative recalibration within its own ranks. The risk for the Left is clear: once aligned with Tusk and the larger opposition framework, their independence may erode, and voters could perceive them as subsumed by a broader political machine.
Meanwhile, those who defended their parliamentary lines during the campaigns did so to resist absorption by a dominant opposition list. They feared being swallowed by a broader coalition, much like affiliates already integrated into the Civic Coalition structure. The one-list approach offered a path to a formal agreement that would clearly outline power distribution, converge program goals, and specify urgent first-year actions. In the end, that framework dissolved, leaving negotiators with what appears to be a series of make-do arrangements rather than a coherent, widely supported roadmap. Now, the parties must face a reality in which they receive whatever Tusk elects to present, and they will have to present those concessions as the voters’ desired outcome, even if the public understands them as compromises.
The adage about the cunning of political games—that a gesture by one side can be used by another side to shape outcomes—rings true here. The old political maxim about Cossacks and Tartars becomes a cautionary tale: never assume that you can predict the final distribution of power in such a volatile environment. In politics, surprises stay on the table, especially when coalitions hinge on personalities and shifting allegiances rather than on rigid programmatic consensus.
In sum, the electoral landscape has left Coalition prospects fragile and the negotiating table crowded with competing claims and uncertain rewards. The central question remains whether any party can craft a majority that not only wins seats but sustains a governing agenda that voters recognize as legitimate and effective. Until a credible, stable coalition emerges, the policy battles, budgetary decisions, and governance decisions will continue to unfold under a cloud of uncertain majorities and tactical concessions.
Source: wPolityce