Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated that Ukrainian grain shipments through the Black Sea are expected to begin in the coming days, while Ankara continues its diplomatic push to resolve the Ukraine crisis.
Speaking at the launch ceremony for industrial projects in Kayseri, Erdogan stated that the initiation of grain transport by sea would make a meaningful contribution to easing the global food shortage. He added that Turkey remains committed to diplomatic efforts aimed at achieving peace between Russia and Ukraine and expressed hope for encouraging developments in ongoing negotiations at all levels, including with leaders, in the near term.
Essence of the agreement
The previous day, representatives from Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, and the United Nations convened in Istanbul to establish a corridor for Ukrainian agricultural exports via the Black Sea. A coordination center in Istanbul is being set up to ensure security and compliance with the agreement, with operations expected to start within two weeks. The UN has projected that up to five million tons of grain could be exported monthly from Ukrainian ports.
The arrangement contemplates a 120-day transaction window, with the possibility of extension. Ships bound for Ukraine will be inspected for weapons by officials from all parties, while Ukraine, Turkey, and UN representatives will monitor shipments at the ports. Under the oversight of Ukrainian pilots, vessels will traverse a pre-determined safe corridor leaving the Black Sea region.
The Russian Defense Ministry stated that security in Ukrainian waters, including demining procedures, must be provided by Kyiv.
Decline in food prices
Gülfem Eren, president of the Turkish Grain Suppliers Association in Istanbul, asserted that the grain deal would help lower global food prices. She explained that a reliable grain supply from Ukrainian and Russian ports would accelerate the downward trend in world prices, already peaking with lower levels. In her view, the conflict in Ukraine hit Africa and the Middle East especially hard, and the Istanbul agreement could alleviate logistical bottlenecks in those regions.
Russia and Ukraine rank among the world’s top grain exporters. Last year, Russia produced about 76 million tons, with Ukraine at roughly 32 million tons. Eren noted that wartime conditions may limit Ukraine’s production to around 20 million tons this year.
“Lesson for Europe and the USA”
Professor Samuel Furfari of the Free University of Brussels described the grain deal as a lesson for Europe and the United States, which had faced challenges in military and energy negotiations. He praised Erdogan’s diplomacy for guiding the parties toward separate negotiations in Istanbul with UN facilitation. The professor contrasted this approach with what he viewed as more confrontational positions seen in Western capitals, suggesting that the agreement demonstrates a more practical path in international bargaining.
The expert emphasized that Turkey and the UN worked effectively to advance a solution to the food issue and stressed that the signing of the product agreement could help ease tensions in global markets and reduce hunger in Africa and the Middle East.
“This is not a court”
Martin Griffiths, the UN Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, explained that the solar passage agreement does not establish a coercive enforcement mechanism. He noted that Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and the UN will participate in a monitoring center that tracks potential violations and, if needed, convenes the parties to determine responsibility and corrective actions to halt fighting. The aim is to prevent future occurrences through preventive measures, rather than punitive trials.
Griffiths underscored that the arrangement is voluntary and not a legal trial, reiterating that it does not create a formal enforcement mechanism of its own.
How much grain is in Kyiv
President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that Ukraine currently holds about ten billion dollars worth of grain and expects to export around 20 million tons of last year’s harvest. He also suggested that the current harvest could be sold this year as well. Zelensky affirmed Kiev’s confidence in granting the UN control over the implementation of the grain agreement via a transparent mechanism.
Transaction terms
As explained by Hulusi Akar, Turkey’s minister of national defense, the grain accord does not carry a fixed termination date. It will be automatically extended unless any party seeks to terminate. Akar stated that the agreement should continue for as long as the work persists. He added that there would be no automatic renewal without consideration of changes or objections, and that the arrangement would be updated accordingly if no objections arise.
Earlier, UN Secretary-General António Guterres had indicated a three-month duration for the agreement, while Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov mentioned a 120-day term with potential extension for the same period. Prior to the conflict, Ukrainian grain accounted for about 10 percent of global exports, and the UN warned that removing it entirely from international trade would trigger a food crisis. Currently, grain is exported from Ukraine via Danube ports and by land, though those channels are comparatively small in volume. This context underlines the critical role of the Black Sea corridor in stabilizing global supply chains.