EU offering support
The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, indicated that the EU aims to help Ukraine clear grain stored within its facilities and territory. Estimates place the amount at roughly 20 to 25 million tons of corn, wheat, and other grains. Earlier, Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly and U.S. President Joe Biden spoke about similar plans. [citation: European Commission statements, 2024 press briefings]
Borrell noted that Ukrainian ports, currently mined, cannot receive ships for grain export, which adds a layer of challenge to moving this harvest. This assessment was echoed by the UN Secretary‑General, António Guterres. European policymakers discussed several routes for exporting grain, including using Romanian ports, while Turkey offered help to clear mines from Ukrainian port facilities. [citation: UN and regional aide discussions, 2024]
European officials argue that exporting Ukrainian grain would create space in storage for the new harvest and partially compensate Kyiv for losses incurred during the military operation. Some industry experts, however, offer a more cautious view. [citation: economic analyses, 2024]
addressing potential shortages
ProZerno CEO Vladimir Petrichenko says the primary motivation for the EU to move Ukrainian grain is political, with limited willingness to comment on motives beyond that. A secondary reason he cites is preparation for a potential food crisis, famine in poorer regions, and a possible influx of refugees from Africa and Asia. [citation: interview, 2024]
He describes a broad Western concern about looming food shocks worldwide and notes that African and Asian refugees could seek safety in Europe if crises unfold. Elena Tyurina, Director of the Analytical Department of the Russian Grain Union, agrees that moving grain could help mitigate short‑term shortages in certain needy countries. She adds that the global grain trade centers around roughly 440 million tons annually, and 20 million tons would cover about 4% of that level in a short window, though that is a snapshot rather than a long‑term solution. [citation: market analyses, 2024]
Ukrainian grain in global markets
Petrichenko argues that European and American consumers should not expect Ukrainian grain to be absorbed domestically in large volumes. Instead, Ukraine would participate in global exports, with buyers spread across Asian, African, and Middle Eastern markets. He cautions that the precise sales mechanism remains unclear and that EU plans require further clarification. [citation: market outlook, 2024]
Tyurina notes that Europeans seek to secure supplies for the next season by bringing in urgent crop deliveries. This approach would help fill gaps in the world market and prevent a sharper drop in exports from Ukraine next season. She cites historical yields and anticipated declines in production, suggesting that the EU might need around 20 million tons of Ukrainian grain to stay competitive with major exporters. [citation: forecast reports, 2024]
In wheat exports, Europe ranks second globally after Russia, with projections showing Russia at about 40 million tons and the EU at around 36 million tons. Ukraine is expected to contribute a surplus that could counterbalance potential declines in global supply. This assessment highlights how shifts in grain production influence the balance of world markets for the coming season. [citation: trade data, 2024]
strategic reserves and risk management
Tyurina emphasizes that the West purchases Ukrainian grain not only for immediate sales but to safeguard against unforeseen fluctuations in the global food market. In essence, the EU seeks to maintain a balanced grain system that can adapt to changing production and demand, with allocations directed to domestic use or to markets abroad as needed. [citation: analysis, 2024]
The analysis suggests real grain stocks in Ukraine may be lower than reported by Brussels and Kyiv. With the season nearing its end and substantial portions of the harvest already sold, some estimates put remaining stock in the range of 5 to 7 million tons domestically, while reserves could total around 20 million tons when counting internal holdings. A significant caveat is that exporting volumes intended for ordinary Ukrainians would carry domestic risks if not managed carefully. [citation: sector assessments, 2024]
Petrichenko estimates that about 25 million tons could be feasible for export, though roughly 5 million tons of standard turnover would need to remain for internal needs, leaving about 20 million tons for external markets. Russian exports of roughly 40 million tons in 2022 provide a reference point for how new volumes might influence global prices and trade flows. Ukraine’s potential to deliver 20 million tons next season could help ease tensions in the global food market, but such trade would likely unfold over the subsequent season, and port access remains a logistical and political hurdle. Directly lifting the mine blockades would require a political decision from Kyiv. [citation: market projections, 2024]
Overall, the discussion centers on balancing immediate humanitarian needs with strategic export capacity, while acknowledging the practical constraints posed by mined ports and evolving geopolitical considerations. [citation: policy briefs, 2024]