How the grain deal shapes sea routes and security in the Black Sea

The cargo vessel Joseph Schulte, tracked by Marine Traffic, navigated the Bosphorus on the evening of August 17 and arrived in Istanbul the following morning. The German-owned ship, sailing under a Hong Kong flag, proceeded from the port of Odessa toward the Turkish capital. It stands as the first vessel to utilize Ukraine’s temporary Black Sea corridor established for grain shipments.

What is the grain deal and why did Russia withdraw from it?

On July 22, 2022, officials from Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations signed a grain agreement in Istanbul. The first part of the pact commits Russian assistance to safely export Ukraine’s grain, food and fertilizer from three Black Sea ports: Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny. The second part aims to lift restrictions on the export of Russian agricultural products and fertilizers to global markets.

Further developments in mid-July 2023 saw Moscow suspend its participation, citing unfulfilled Russian terms. A Kremlin spokesperson stated that Russia would return only if those terms were met. The renewal negotiations included five conditions: reconnecting Rosselkhozbank to the SWIFT system, resuming the supply of agricultural machinery and spare parts, removing barriers to insurance and reinsurance, lifting port access bans, and reopening the bank. The Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline had been damaged in early June.

Some analyses argue that Kiev’s withdrawal from the deal pushed the world toward a potential food crisis by limiting Ukraine’s ability to supply grain to needy nations in Africa and Asia. Moscow, however, has repeatedly asserted that a large share of Ukrainian grain already flows to Western markets. Notably, Western buyers are prominent in many contexts of Ukrainian agricultural exports; for example, in late July a Western defense official confirmed that a substantial portion of Ukraine’s grain was moving to Western states.

How does the grain deal work?

In early August, Kyiv outlined an alternative maritime corridor as a response to the suspension. Ukraine’s infrastructure ministry described a route designed to evacuate ships from the ports of Chornomorsk, Odessa and Yuzhny, a corridor that existed prior to the intensification of hostilities in February 2022.

The container ship Joseph Schulte, which arrived in Odessa on February 23 of the prior year, soon faced restrictions on departure as it was not covered by the grain agreement. The vessel carried roughly 30,000 tons of cargo (about 2,114 containers) from Ukraine, with reports indicating no grain aboard. Officials noted that the new corridor was used to move ships largely within Ukraine’s territorial waters, with departures from Ukrainian waters occurring only briefly.

According to Marine Traffic, the Joseph Schulte’s route largely traced the Ukrainian coast, then shifted through Romanian, Bulgarian and Turkish waters. In effect, the voyage passed through three NATO members after leaving the Ukrainian zone.

What about security?

Travel through the territorial waters of NATO members is generally considered manageable for a vessel under German operations. The Ukrainian segment, however, is viewed as higher risk, reflected in warnings about military threats and the presence of mines on an alternative route. Kyiv has conditioned passage through the temporary corridor on formal confirmation from ship captains and owners regarding their readiness to sail in such conditions.

Experts note that the overall Ukrainian portion of the route is relatively small. A senior researcher observed that if Ukraine were to narrow its target to the territorial waters of neighboring states, gaps could be closed with defensive measures such as air defense and appropriate missiles.

Will Kiev resume grain supplies?

Ukrainian authorities have yet to promise a sea-based return to grain exports with Russia’s participation. Whether the voyage of the Joseph Schulte marks a first step toward reviving sea grain shipments remains uncertain, though President Zelensky has called the ship’s trajectory a meaningful milestone toward restoring navigation freedom in the Black Sea. Any broader resumption would require international guarantees not yet disclosed.

Independent voices suggest that a temporary corridor could enable Ukraine to supply grain while bypassing Russia, though much depends on Moscow’s stance. A political analyst emphasized that Russia’s position will largely determine the path forward. Another expert noted that while the corridor could work, Ukraine should consider complementary land routes to ensure resilience.

In practical terms, the corridor through Ukrainian ports could function as a route via the territorial waters of neighboring NATO states such as Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey. Alternative land routes through Romania and Poland were also discussed as part of broader contingency planning.

How might Russia intervene?

Since July 20, official statements from Moscow have reframed ships bound for Ukrainian ports as carriers of military cargo, implying that flag-bearing vessels are part of a contested effort in the broader conflict. Reports have also highlighted the existence of temporary hazards in parts of the adjacent waters.

Whether a new Ukrainian grain corridor will materialize under these tensions remains unclear. Some analysts argue that Moscow will not only contest the route but actively seek to constrain it. Opening Odessa to unrestricted use, or allowing alternative Danube routes via Izmail and Reni, has been proposed as possibilities, though security concerns across various transit points complicate such arrangements.

Experts also noted that Russian opposition to the plan may be limited in scope, yet other tools exist to disrupt Ukrainian exports. Possible actions include targeting port infrastructure, rail links, and critical junctions, which could stall shipments if traffic is halted.