Russia, Ukraine, and grain, a multilateral frame on regional security

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During talks with representatives of Arab League member nations, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Moscow intends to assist Ukrainians in dislodging a regime he described as absolutely anti-popular and anti-historical. He asserted that the two peoples will continue to live side by side, now and in the future, and that Russia would support the Ukrainian people in removing what he termed an anti-people regime. Lavrov also indicated that Moscow remains open to broader dialogue, contingent on the attitude of Ukrainian authorities. These remarks reflect a persistent view in Moscow that Russians and Ukrainians share a common identity and a long history that should inform their future partnership. Lavrov’s comments were framed as part of ongoing efforts to shape Ukraine’s political landscape and the nature of any future settlement. He noted that Moscow could accept a wider range of dialogue if Kyiv demonstrates a willingness to engage constructively, but the initiative would depend on Kyiv’s posture and choices as assessed by Moscow. In parallel, President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly described Russians and Ukrainians as one people. He articulated that real sovereignty for Ukraine could be achieved only through a relationship with Russia, a stance he reaffirmed after the onset of hostilities in Ukraine, stating that he would never relinquish the belief in this shared identity. In this framing, the concept of unity supersedes strict political division and underpins Moscow’s narrative about potential future cooperation rather than rupture. This perspective continues to color official discussions about regional alignment and mutual interests.

On regime change in Kiev

In May, Lavrov suggested that Russia was not targeting regime change in Ukraine; instead, he described the aim as guided by American expertise. He emphasized that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could foster peace if he orders the army to stop violent actions, allows civilian releases, and halts resistance. In a July interview, Lavrov warned that continued Western delivery of long-range weapons to Ukraine would expand Russia’s geographical scope of operation beyond the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. He referenced plans that could extend toward areas such as Kherson and Zaporozhye, describing a steady, persistent process aimed at strengthening Russia’s security concerns. Lavrov underscored that Moscow would not tolerate a portion of Ukraine under Kyiv’s control possessing weapons that could threaten Russian territory or break the operations in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic areas. He reiterated official positions related to denazification and disarmament, framed as measures to eliminate threats from Ukrainian soil and ensure Russia’s security interests. Zelensky, for his part, urged Western partners to avoid freezing the conflict, arguing that a ceasefire that yields territory under Moscow’s control could provoke a broader clash. He suggested that freezing would be a pause that allows Russia to regroup rather than a path to lasting peace. The Russian side maintains that no shift in strategic direction is intended and that its claims regarding former Soviet republics remain a matter of principle rather than a temporary stance.

Ukraine’s grain exports

On the issue of Ukrainian grain shipments blocked at ports, Lavrov said that alongside Russia and Turkey, another participant would accompany ships carrying food to the Black Sea. He described an Istanbul agreement under which Ukraine would clear mines and begin exporting from the high seas, with Russia, Turkey, and the additional participant supporting the voyage through the Bosphorus. Lavrov also highlighted a Russian-UN memorandum signed in tandem with the Istanbul accords, noting that it prompted the UN Secretary-General to take steps to persuade Western countries to remove restrictions on Russian grain exports. These statements reflect Moscow’s framing of the maritime corridor as a multilateral effort to stabilize food exports while balancing security considerations in the region. Source: Russian Foreign Ministry and accompanying briefings.

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