It has been more than half a year since fuel prices began a historic rise that squeezed drivers. The surge was sparked by the war in Ukraine and its ripple effects. Even as we move through the holiday season, and despite the government removing 20 cents per liter at the pump starting April 1, the reality remains stark. Filling a 50-liter tank with gasoline cost around 70 euros last year and has risen to over 88 euros today, already counting the executive discount. Diesel shows a similar pattern, with 50 liters costing about 87 euros last year and now being around 62.75 euros higher to roughly 149.75 euros with the discount.
Yet, amid these increases, a notable trend has emerged in Spain over the past month: fuel prices have begun to ease. Looking at the last autonomy cycle from June 21 to July 21, the price of gasoline per liter fell by 7.59 percent from 2.135 euros to 1.973 euros. This decline began a few days earlier, on June 17, when the price stood at 2.145 euros per liter. Diesel followed a similar trajectory, decreasing by 7.44 percent in the same period, dropping from 2.099 euros per liter to 1.943 euros on the last recorded Thursday.
Defining the international context for this shift is essential. How are prices slipping when demand for gasoline and diesel rises as more Spaniards hit the roads for holidays? The answer lies in the broader global market. In a climate of uncertainty, key oil price indicators show downward movement. Brent crude has hovered around 100 euros, after closing at 103.91 euros on Friday, down from the 120 euros seen just two months earlier. The decline is linked to forecasts from influential bodies such as the International Energy Agency, which projects softer oil demand amid a cooling economy.
Against this backdrop of slower growth, the war in Ukraine remains unresolved, and additional factors have influenced recent weeks. Chinese economic data, signaling a 2.6 percent contraction in the second quarter due to covid lockdowns and real estate troubles, have spurred fears of a broader global slowdown. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by half a point, or 0.5 percent, last week, while the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to tackle inflation. Taken together, these developments suggest a potential drop in demand and a further easing of oil prices, which would likely translate into lower fuel prices in the near future.
In summary, while domestic pump prices showed a pronounced jump in the first half of the year, recent data point to a cooling trend. The interplay between international price signals and local demand shapes the trajectory for both gasoline and diesel. Travelers and daily commuters alike may witness continued fluctuations as market forces respond to economic signals, geopolitical developments, and evolving energy policies. The evolving landscape remains dynamic, with price movements mirroring shifts in global supply, demand, and monetary policy that influence the cost of fueling a vehicle on European roads.