The energy shock that began last year as Russia escalated its invasion of Ukraine has left a lasting impact on European fuel markets. Latest data from the European Union Oil Bulletin shows that Spain’s average prices for gasoline and diesel have fallen below the levels seen at the start of the conflict. Current averages stand at approximately 1.58 euros for a liter of gasoline and 1.41 euros for a liter of diesel. In the week of February 21, 2022, when the war intensified, gasoline hovered around 1.59 euros per liter and diesel around 1.48 euros per liter. Diesel remains a frequent example of how energy prices shift in response to geopolitical events, even as everyday goods like socks demonstrate how inflation can touch ordinary experiences.
The current weekly diesel price shows a decline of about 1.53 percent from the previous week, marking a new year-to-date low and the lowest level seen since late January 2022. One liter of diesel is trading around 1.41 euros after nine straight weeks of decline, still lower than late 2022 levels when a 20-cent-per-liter government subsidy was in place. At the same time, gasoline has continued its fourth consecutive weekly slide, dipping about 1.25 percent to roughly 1.58 euros per liter, its lowest point since mid-February of the previous year. The notable influence of fuels on inflation gives policymakers hope that consumer price indices may soften. [Citation: EU Oil Bulletin]
Diesel prices have remained below gasoline for the fourteenth straight week. From August 2022 into mid-February this year, diesel typically costs more than gasoline, a pattern that changed with the latest market dynamics influenced by the conflict in Ukraine. [Citation: EU Oil Bulletin]
Even at these levels, fuel prices are far from their summer peaks. Last year gasoline touched about 2.14 euros per liter and diesel around 2.10 euros per liter in July. Both fuels have stayed below the highs reached before the government’s 20-cent-per-liter subsidy took effect. Since early 2023, the reduced price support has largely targeted professional groups, including shippers, farmers, transport companies, and fishermen. In European energy markets, Brent crude traded near $76 per barrel on Thursday in Europe, with U.S. Gulf Coast WTI around $72.40, illustrating the regional price spread that shapes local pump prices. [Citation: EU Oil Bulletin]
ups and downs
Historical oil price movements illustrate notable volatility. For example, oil prices dropped by roughly 70 percent between January and April 2020, then climbed by about 250 percent to a peak near $120 in mid-2022. Analysts suggest that Brent crude prices for producing nations could stabilize around $80 per barrel after recent dips below $70. [Citation: EU Oil Bulletin]
In Spain, the price for 95 octane unleaded gasoline sits below the European Union average of about 1.703 euros per liter and the eurozone average of roughly 1.754 euros. Diesel in Spain also runs below the EU and eurozone averages of about 1.535 euros and 1.563 euros per liter respectively. Price differentials across Europe show notable variations, with Denmark and Sweden among the higher cost locations for diesel and petrol respectively, while Bulgaria and Malta offer more affordable options for gasoline and diesel buyers. [Citation: EU Oil Bulletin]