Anger stirred across Eastern Europe as Warsaw, Budapest, and Bratislava vetoed Ukrainian grain imports, triggering friction within the European Union and threatening to weaken the broad unity Washington-style support for Kyiv among the 27 member states. The spark was the tariff exemption the EU granted to the United States last summer. Ukrainian cereals have been a lifeline for Ukraine’s battered economy amid ongoing Russian aggression, while prices in Eastern Europe have faced pressure from market forces. In Spain, the situation is less urgent. The countryside relies on imports to meet demand, yet the unregulated arrival of Ukrainian grain has pulled on cereal prices, according to referenced sources.
Spain has emerged as a major recipient of Ukrainian grain since the war began, with official channels noting that the United Nations and Türkiye brokered a corridor last July to keep Ukrainian grain flowing to international markets via the Black Sea. An agreement aimed at easing the global food supply crisis was established to ensure safe access to Ukrainian cereals. Since then, Spain has imported about 4.9 million tons of cereals, including substantial quantities of wheat, sweetcorn, and barley, along with sunflower oil. Türkiye follows with roughly 3 million tons.
“Spain is not exactly hurting the entry of Ukrainian grains because domestic stock levels are modest,” commented José Roales, the national director for herbaceous crops at COAG, while also noting that it would be unfair to grant a zero-tariff regime if it drives down prices excessively. In a typical year, Spain imports roughly half of its grain to support both human consumption and livestock feed. Recent months have seen prices soften and largely revert to pre-war levels, influencing the market’s balance.
Impact on the price of Spanish cereal
The price dynamics in Spain do not set grain prices themselves; the market is exposed to broader fluctuations and speculative movements. “If Ukrainian grain is valued at 200 euros, Spanish grain cannot be sold for 205 euros just to chase a premium; it must compete at the same price,” explained José Manuel Álvarez, general secretary of ACCOE, which represents cereal and oilseed traders. Several factors shape price movements, while the Small Farmers and Farmers Union has highlighted the impact of preferential treatment in Brussels granted to Ukrainian grain. “It is noticeable,” stated José Manuel Roche, the union’s Secretary of International Affairs, that prices in markets listing grains have fallen significantly, raising concerns about potential downstream effects on farmers and consumers.
“Ukraine deserves support, but Ukrainian grain cannot alone fill European markets under the current terms and fees,” he added in a phone conversation.
Effect of drought
Disagreement persists within the industry. Interests collide: grain producers seeking strong prices, high-cost farmers guarding feed margins, and others wary of pushing up feeding costs for livestock. When grain prices drop, feed costs often follow, yet speculation can disrupt this relationship. Rosa Pruna, head of ASAJA in Catalonia, argued that non-scheduled Ukrainian tariffs could be preferable for Spain’s situation, suggesting the non-tariff entry of Ukrainian grain could ease price pressures. She warned of a severe drought, stressing the need for countries to avoid blocking Ukrainian grain imports into the peninsula. The agricultural association labeled the drought as disastrous and emphasized the urgency of keeping Ukrainian grain flowing to protect farming livelihoods.
Pruna’s position reflects broader industry concerns. A COAG report highlights that drought threatens about 60% of Spain’s rain-fed farmland, potentially causing irreversible losses across millions of hectares of cereal crops in regions like Extremadura, Andalusia, Castile-La Mancha, and Murcia. In Catalonia, Aragon, and Castile and León, yields could fall dramatically, forcing some livestock producers to consider reducing herd sizes due to feed costs. These dynamics are likely to affect consumer prices as well. The industry has not reached a single political stance yet, but there is a shared sense that Ukrainian grain remains essential to rural areas and national supply, even as tensions with policy makers grow.
Current sentiment suggests that Spain cannot afford to oppose Ukrainian grain without risking a broader disruption to the cereal supply. The market consensus is that continued Ukrainian grain imports are necessary to maintain stable prices and assure food availability, while EU member states weigh regional needs with overarching trade and security considerations. A government voice in the discussion, expressed by the agriculture minister, signals a desire for Brussels to respond to Eastern European farmers while not obstructing Ukrainian grain at the border. The aim remains to balance humanitarian support with practical domestic needs, ensuring rural resilience without resorting to drastic trade barriers.