Poland will provide Ukraine with more than 467 million dollars’ worth of weapons, according to Deputy Prime Minister Jacek Sasin. He described the agreement as the largest arms export contract Poland has made in the last three decades. Part of the cost for Ukraine’s deliveries will be covered by the European Union budget, according to his statement.
Details about the exact weapons involved in the deal remained uncertain. A Polish portal, Dziennik, cited unnamed sources claiming Ukraine is close to purchasing 60 self-propelled howitzers AHS Crab. The claimed value in the press reports aligns with the figure shared by Sasin.
Experts note that since Russia launched its special operation, Ukraine has received tens of thousands of weapons in all categories, from small arms and RPGs to anti-tank guided missiles, MANPADS, and a wide range of heavy firepower.
Nevertheless, Kyiv has repeatedly pressed for more assistance, arguing that its partners have not matched its needs.
Recently Aleksey Arestovich, the chief adviser to Ukraine’s presidential office, indicated delays in a shipment of 5,000 helmets promised by Germany, claiming the helmets were requested even before Russia’s operation began. He urged Germans to reflect on what their country has actually supplied, while commenting on a live program on Feigin Live.
The controversy over armament deliveries between Ukraine and Germany is not new. Earlier reports from Der Spiegel suggested a delay in tank deliveries. Berlin has expressed concerns that Kyiv, after achieving several battlefield successes, might grow overly confident and pursue access to Russian territory.
Similar worries have been echoed in the United States regarding the delivery of multiple launch rocket systems to Ukraine. In a CNN interview, John Finer, the deputy national security adviser for international economics, said Washington asked Kyiv for assurances that the systems would not be used against Russian soil.
What does Ukraine need?
Military expert Ivan Konovalov, speaking with a regional outlet, described the Ukrainian position as seeking every possible weapon for a sustained defense. He highlighted a demand for long‑range systems, air defense, and heavy artillery, noting that if Kyiv could obtain whatever it asked for, it would push for even more, including strategic capabilities those outside the current inventory would consider unacceptable, such as nuclear options.
Aleksey Arbatov, head of a renowned international security center, commented that three weapon categories are most in demand: anti-ship missiles, long-range multiple launch rocket systems, and self-propelled anti-aircraft guns. Ukraine has already received components from these categories, according to his assessment.
Denmark has delivered Harpoon anti-ship missiles to Ukraine, with the ministry of defense confirming initial deliveries by late May and the Pentagon assisting with training. Harpoons are expected to enable Ukrainian forces to threaten the Black Sea Fleet’s operational area, potentially limiting Russian coastal operations around Odessa and Ochakov.
RZSO systems such as the HIMARS are set to be supplied from the United States, while defensive and offensive uses of multiple rocket launchers with GPS-guided missiles would help to neutralize large formations at extended ranges, as explained by the cited expert.
Germany has faced challenges in delivering Gepard anti-aircraft systems, though it promised to begin shipments by July after earlier assurances. These systems are seen as critical for countering Russian air superiority and supporting Ukraine’s air operations, according to the reporting authorities.
How will this affect the course of hostilities?
According to Aleksey Arbatov, the array of weapons matters for Kyiv in enabling different military tasks. The key objective remains to halt Russian offensives and to pressure a counterattack with properly concentrated systems. He noted that certain crucial systems, such as ATACMS, had not yet reached Ukraine, and the available shipments include multiple launch rocket systems with shorter ranges. The trajectory of the conflict remains uncertain as new arms arrive and are integrated into operations.
Arbatov cautioned that the scenario where Kyiv receives all it seeks would still not guarantee a decisive outcome. He suggested that Russia might respond by targeting industrial hubs and major administrative centers if Ukraine escalates, using long-range strike capabilities such as Caliber missiles to retaliate against perceived threats.
Another expert, Ivan Konovalov, offered a different view, arguing that weapons shipments are unlikely to sway the overall result of the Russian special operation. In his view, Kyiv’s best path would be to seek an end through political resolution rather than endless military escalation.