Boris Johnson speaks several classical languages and has a clear sense of what’s what. Pyrus victory. While he celebrated on Monday night after stabilizing internal dissent, the outcome, in his view very solid, firm, and resolute, highlighted the stamina of the opposition and the fragility of the prime minister. Johnson is not in immediate danger, but his position remains deeply wounded.
The rebels refuse to concede. They do not expect to be ousted within days or weeks. I’ll hazard a prediction: at this year’s party conference the Conservatives will see a new prime minister and a fresh party leader, declared one rebel MP, Andrew Bridg. His forecast mirrors the views of Jon Tonge, a professor of British politics at the University of Liverpool. The Guardian quoted him saying he would not have been surprised if Johnson had stepped down in the autumn. He would have given it six months. The cautious Tonge chose not to overstate the trend, noting the prime minister’s resilient trajectory. If anyone can endure it, it is Johnson, described by some as the most stubborn survivor in politics.
turn the page
On Tuesday Johnson convened the cabinet as usual, opening the session with thanks for the Monday efforts. He framed the vote as an opportunity to move on and discuss what the public cares about rather than what critics want to debate.
Turn the page was the refrain heard across television and radio from the justice minister and the deputy prime minister. As foreign affairs leaders weighed in, the emphasis was clear: focus on housing, childcare, and lower taxes, and keep momentum in the government’s agenda.
Most ministers currently stand with the leader. There are no clear signs of resignation or unified opposition that would force a change in leadership. A cabinet reshuffle remains part of emergency planning, according to Johnson allies, aimed at removing those who are not fully loyal. Interior Minister Priti Patel is among the most controversial figures and has been observed keeping her distance from the prime minister.
Northern Ireland Protocol
The fragile domestic situation for Johnson’s leadership raises concerns beyond Britain’s borders. The rift over the Northern Ireland Protocol grows as the prime minister faces pressure from within the party to take a harder line on Brexit. If the government decides it must take decisive steps to preserve party unity, a stricter stance on the protocol could follow. Ireland’s foreign minister expressed worry, saying that a tougher approach could impact Ireland as well. At present, plans to scrap parts of the protocol have been postponed, with contested text not yet ready for publication.
Brexit and the Protocol are just two fronts Johnson must manage. The potential impact on his authority could come from the June 23 by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton, traditional Conservative seats now being tested at the polls. A Conservative MP warned that voters might realize they had been misled by the chaos surrounding the government, and that it may take changes in rules to alter the internal party dynamics. Some discussions in Westminster revolve around adjusting the procedures that currently prevent reintroducing an internal no-confidence motion for a period of time.