Germany’s Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck signaled a cautious stance on the rapid delivery of heavy arms to Ukraine. He noted that while Russian special operations continue on Ukrainian soil, sending advanced weapons to Kyiv could introduce risks for the European Union and NATO alike.
“Heavy weapons equal tanks, and thus far NATO members have avoided them to prevent becoming targets for Russia”, he stated. He added that NATO would continually reassess the situation as the fighting evolves, and any decision about heavy weapons would be discussed within the alliance. He emphasized that Germany should act in concert with its partners on this issue.
The remark from the German leader came as Kyiv pressed NATO and the European Union to supply modern heavy weaponry. The alliance and its troops have largely kept Russia at a distance since the onset of Moscow’s operation. Debates over delivering aircraft to Kyiv have stalled, in part because such a move could escalate Western involvement in the conflict.
Ukraine continues to receive some modern equipment, though much of it remains lighter in nature. Instances include small arms, portable anti-tank systems, shoulder-fired missiles, protective gear, and civilian vehicles. To date, support for heavy weapons typically involves supplying Soviet-era equipment, a choice tied to concerns about provoking Russia and to the belief that older gear requires less intensive training for Ukrainian forces, as reported by Politico.
Moscow has repeatedly criticized Western arms shipments to Ukraine, which began prior to the latest phase of the conflict under the pretext of countering a purported invasion. The Kremlin argued that arming Kyiv has not fostered productive negotiations and may undermine any potential diplomatic settlement.
What are the red lines of Russia?
Members of Russia’s Federal Assembly offered diverse opinions on what Western arms to Ukraine could trigger a firm Russian response. Sergei Tsekov, a member of the International Relations Committee of the Federation Council, suggested that a modern weapons transfer would cross a key threshold for Moscow, particularly if aircraft and tanks were involved.
“Western suppliers are nearing this line by arming Kyiv with modern anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems. Such moves risk drawing serious trouble and escalating the conflict”, he warned. The West, according to him, appears prepared to confront Russia through Ukrainian forces, potentially prompting retaliation against the suppliers themselves. Official statements from the Russian Ministry of Defense were anticipated for clarity on any next steps.
Meanwhile, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Yuri Shvytkin contended that any light or heavy weapon entering Ukraine could pose threats to Russian forces. He argued that all forms of armament require Moscow’s vigilance to prevent its transfer to Ukrainian forces. Referring to Moscow’s stated aim of liberating Ukrainian territory from what it calls a fascist regime, he accused those supplying arms of complicity and urged decisive actions, including potential strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and transportation links, to disrupt military capabilities.
Andrey Frolov of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) noted that the red line would likely be crossed by the transfer of long-range, high-precision systems to Ukraine. He pointed out that the United States had not ruled out supplying systems capable of striking Russian territory and suggested that basing such weapons with NATO members and operating sorties over Ukraine could become a defining boundary.
Is it possible to block consumables
Since the start of the Russian operation, Poland has emerged as a central hub for Western weapons shipments to Ukraine, shifting from air to road or rail transport as hostilities continue. Observers cited by Polityka indicate that land routes are prioritized because rail limitations and the practicalities of road transport make air delivery impractical in the current environment.
Analysts note that the ability to deliver heavy weapons by air is largely constrained under present conditions, and the Russian side actively tracks and targets weapons entering Ukraine. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated Moscow would continue to deter Western attempts to sustain the flow of arms, viewing such transports as legitimate military targets in the ongoing operation.
It remains unclear whether Russia as a whole can halt all arms deliveries. Kyiv has received significant quantities of various weapons and ammunition, but identifying shipments among ordinary traffic poses a challenge, according to Alexander Khramchikhin, deputy director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis. He suggested that while larger equipment shipments are noticeable, smaller arms shipments often blend into normal commerce. In terms of broader strategy, Russia tends to avoid striking civilian targets, yet some observers believe that border controls could help curb the flow at western Ukrainian crossings. Regarding heavy equipment, covert concealment is difficult, and rail or self-transit deliveries could still be susceptible to disruption by legitimate security measures.