Russia’s stance on Ukraine, security guarantees, and responses to Western arms support

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Russia states it will support Ukrainians in countering what it describes as a hostile Kyiv regime that allegedly channels Western money into its system. The declaration came from Konstantin Gavrilov, who leads the Russian delegation at the Vienna talks on military security and arms control. He also warned Kyiv representatives about the use of MLRS and other long-range weapons supplied by NATO members on Russian soil.

“If the Ukrainian Armed Forces deploy American MLRS or other NATO long-range systems against Russian soil, the consequences will be grave,” Gavrilov told attendees at the OSCE Security Cooperation Forum.

He argued that Washington is pushing European states to work with Kyiv and thereby inflaming Moscow’s relations, while pressuring Ukrainian troops to use Ukrainian land as a corridor for weapon deliveries. According to Gavrilov, such actions may widen the armed conflict and pull more parties into the fight.

“We ask you to listen. Western states have heard many of the points Russia has tried to communicate for a long time. Remember what was said last December. Hear us,” Gavrilov urged.

messages from the past

On December 21, 2021, Gavrilov explained that Russia had a backup plan if the United States and NATO did not respond to Moscow’s security guarantees. He framed this as a leadership-driven option, not an ultimatum, but as a necessary stance shaped by circumstances and time. He emphasized that Russia’s interests should be safeguarded.

alerts in history

On April 13, 2022, a spokesperson from the Russian Defense Ministry warned that if Ukrainian forces continued attempts to sabotage targets inside Russia, Moscow could strike decision-making centers in Kyiv.

On April 15, a deputy in the State Duma proposed strikes on Kyiv’s control centers in response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory, arguing for a strong retaliatory move. The stance was reiterated on multiple occasions by the deputy.

By April 22, the deputy warned Kyiv of potential actions inside Russia and even at critical infrastructure such as the Crimean bridge, promising proportional retaliatory measures for those who attacked Russian assets.

The commentary followed incidents such as the June 20 attack by Ukrainian forces on offshore drilling sites, which Russia indicated could lead to more aggressive actions against those involved. In parallel, Natalya Poklonskaya—an official with ties to regional authorities—expressed skepticism about imminent attacks, while calling for a resolution that would bring peace and the return of people to their homes.

Later, the ministry addressed calls by Western officials suggesting Ukraine could target Russian logistics as legitimate, asserting Moscow’s readiness for a swift and proportional response. It was stated that Russian actions would respond to decisions made in Western capitals, should they influence Ukrainian targets.

On May 30, Dmitry Medvedev, then a high-ranking security official, warned that Russian forces would strike decision-making points in response to attacks on Russian cities, noting some centers might not be in Kyiv. As June arrived, warnings continued that Russia would strike decision-making centers in Ukraine if Kyiv relied on weapons supplied by the United States to attack Russian territory.

In mid-June, President Vladimir Putin commented on the delivery of HIMARS systems to Ukraine and suggested that if their range allowed strikes on Russian territory, Russia would target previously untouched objects. By June 17, Putin indicated that the decision on red lines rested with the military-political leadership, emphasizing that actions beyond those lines would require careful contemplation from those responsible in Moscow.

In late June, Roscosmos released coordinates it claimed belonged to Western centers of decision-making, including the White House, the Pentagon, and major government buildings across Europe. The announcement referenced symbolic locations in Madrid, Berlin, Paris, and beyond, signaling the scale of perceived targets and the intensity of the ongoing exchange.

As the situation developed, authorities repeatedly stressed the potential for rapid and decisive responses in light of ongoing hostilities and strategic shifts. The overall narrative focused on deterrence, the protection of national interests, and the readiness to respond to actions perceived as threats to regional security and sovereignty.

Cited authorities note that the events described reflect official positions and public statements from Russian leadership and defense agencies regarding security guarantees, arms deliveries, and potential retaliatory actions in response to Ukrainian or Western military activity. These statements are part of a broader dialogue on regional security and the dynamics of international arms control and defense planning. (Cited from official statements and public briefings by Russian officials.)

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