Polish Budget Strength and Tax Reforms Highlight Fiscal Policy and Coalition Prospects

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Funds to finance PiS promises

Poland’s leadership asserted that the state budget has ample room to support the election pledges of the ruling party, with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki highlighting a substantial growth in yearly revenues since 2015.

Speaking at a conference focused on public finances, the prime minister stated that those claiming otherwise are misleading the public, underscoring a belief that the economy is stronger than many expect.

Morawiecki noted that annual budget revenues rose from about PLN 290 billion in 2015 to nearly PLN 595 billion in 2023, suggesting this expansion could cover major social spending, including an annual PLN 100 billion for social programs.

According to the prime minister, the budget has fared much better than feared, despite global pressures from the pandemic, the energy crisis, and the war in Ukraine. He attributed the narrative that public finances are weak to a strategy by some opposition factions aiming to mislead voters about the state of the economy.

Morawiecki warned that the opposition might attack election pledges and search for excuses not to fulfill them if they take government power.

Corporate tax revenues increased by 188%.

Morawiecki pointed to a rise in corporate profit tax receipts, noting an increase of PLN 62 billion, or 188%, from 2015 to 2023, bringing revenue to PLN 94.8 billion. He contrasted this with the 2008–2015 period when tax receipts fell from PLN 34.6 billion to PLN 32.9 billion, arguing that the current trajectory reflects a stronger business climate and prudent fiscal management.

The prime minister highlighted that the tax reforms included a significant reduction in corporate tax for small and medium-sized enterprises, set at 9 percent, along with various other incentives intended to support growth while maintaining stable public finances.

Since 2015, overall budget revenues reportedly grew by PLN 305 billion, or 105 percent, reaching PLN 594.6 billion in 2023. He argued that this expansion funds social programs introduced by the government and reinforces a path toward sustained prosperity.

Morawiecki recalled the European Commission’s VAT gap estimation, noting that it stood at 25 percent when the party first took office in 2015. He said that by 2021 the VAT gap had narrowed to 3.3 percent under the current administration, attributing the improvement to policy measures aimed at curbing evasion and boosting tax collection.

“Every fourth zloty during the preceding era ended up in the pockets of the VAT mafia,” the prime minister asserted, framing the progress as a return to fairness in tax collection.

He also stressed that strong revenue performance underpins social programs and the broader agenda of the government, highlighting a commitment to fiscal responsibility while pursuing growth and social goals.

Prime Minister: We are willing to work together

During a discussion at the prime minister’s chancellery, Morawiecki was asked about potential coalition prospects and conversations around forming a parliamentary majority. He emphasized that personnel questions were not the primary concern, focusing instead on establishing a government that can advance the country’s interests and sustain social policies while ensuring national security. The president holds the prerogative to shape the initial coalition options.

In the most recent Sejm results, PiS secured 194 seats, with KO at 157, Third Way at 65, New Left at 26, and Confederation at 18. The prime minister thanked supporters for the more than 7.6 million votes cast for PiS and highlighted a historic achievement as the first party in the Third Polish Republic to win three consecutive elections. He noted that a broad coalition could be necessary to complete the mandate and indicated willingness to collaborate with any group that shares Poland’s welfare goals.

As consultations continued, President Andrzej Duda held talks at the presidential palace with leaders from the elected committees in the Sejm. The constitution outlines three potential steps for government formation after elections: the president’s lead role in proposing a government, a Sejm majority vote of confidence, and, if needed, an alternative process requiring wider parliamentary support or a fresh presidential initiative. Further discussions among party leaders were underway to determine the best path forward for Poland’s governance.

Additional updates from the presidential palace followed discussions with leaders of various groups. The overarching aim remains to identify a path that ensures stable governance and continued progress on national priorities.

Note: The content reflects statements and events reported by multiple outlets at the time and captures the sequence of political developments surrounding government formation and fiscal policy debates.

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