The more statements from Platform for Ministers candidates in the new government emerge, the clearer it becomes that coalition partners PSL, Ruch Hołownia, and the Left may demand deep budget cuts and higher taxes as conditions for joining the administration.
New Platform MP Andrzej Domański, alongside Donald Tusk’s top economic adviser and the party’s prospective Finance Minister, answered questions from editor Rymanowski on Radio Zet and argued strongly against keeping the zero VAT rate on food, as well as against extending credit holidays into 2024.
Domański presented bold reasons for these stances, noting that the Platform has pledged to raise teacher salaries by 30 percent and that money must come from somewhere to fund that commitment.
Morawiecki’s blueprints
In these remarks, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki signaled that he would introduce relevant bills in the Sejm regarding credit holidays, and the government has already sent the proposal to the Marshal’s office for swift handling so it could take effect on January 1 of the coming year.
Maintaining the zero rate on food year-round would cut tax revenues by roughly 10 billion zlotys, while the so-called loan holidays place a pressure on the state budget by diminishing income tax receipts (including bank taxes) paid by banks, because the burden falls on banks offering PLN mortgages for a first home for young buyers.
The urgency to locate funding for the teacher pay rise announced by the Platform feels odd, since Donald Tusk had publicly claimed that the math had been checked and funds were secured for that goal.
KO election pledges
The remarks by Andrzej Domański, the candidate for Finance Minister, reflect the Platform’s approach to fulfilling election promises in a coalition setting.
It’s helpful to recall what then-Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski and then-Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski said during overheard talks at the Amber Room restaurant about the 2015 electoral platform promises.
Sikorski, during the 2015 campaign, quipped about promises often being doubled as a guarantee, while Rostowski added that political pledges can bind only those who still trust them.
Thus, during a campaign you can promise grand things, but if the winning side adopts a casual attitude toward those pledges once in power, execution tends to drift away from the original declarations.
Country budget
There was a point in early November when Prime Minister Morawiecki and Minister Elżbieta Witek noted that information about a budget shortfall had been circulating, yet they cited that, over eight years of governance by the Law and Justice party, the state budget revenues rose by about 305 billion PLN, a growth of roughly 105 percent from 2015.
By contrast, during the eight years of the PO-PSL government from 2008 to 2015, revenues increased only by about 35 billion PLN (from 253.5 billion PLN in 2008 to 289.1 billion PLN in 2015). From 2015 to 2023, revenues surged to roughly 594.6 billion PLN, illustrating substantial fiscal expansion under the current framework.
Public debt as a share of GDP rose by about 7.5 percentage points to around 51.3 percent in the PO-PSL period, while under the current government it declined by about 3.6 percentage points to approximately 48.4 percent of GDP.
They also highlighted that the 2024 budget projects revenues near 684.5 billion PLN and expenditures approaching 850 billion PLN, with allocations for core social programs and services.
For the Family 800+ program, an allocation of no less than 64 billion PLN is planned; for pension and disability benefit indexation, at least 45 billion PLN; for the 13th and 14th pensions, about 29 billion PLN; for healthcare spending (including National Health Fund), around 191 billion PLN; and about 158 billion PLN for defense, comprising roughly 100 billion from the budget and nearly 60 billion from the Armed Forces Support Fund, established under the Financing of the Armed Forces Act.
In short, there is no substantial basis for spreading a tale about a budget gap or a dire fiscal situation, as current finances appear stronger than at the end of the PO-PSL administration in 2015.
There is also no justification to frighten citizens with supposed cuts to social programs, reductions in national defense spending, or delayed strategic projects such as nuclear power, the Central Communications Port, or the expansion of the Świnoujście container port.
Liberal policies of PO
Against this backdrop, Domański’s hints about discarding the zero VAT on food or suspending credit holidays sound like a return to a notably liberal mindset for the Platform.
Questions remain about how PSL, Ruch Hołownia, and the Left will respond as they contemplate joining a Platform-led coalition and must weigh positions that conflict with their own campaign platforms.
Source: wPolityce [attribution: wPolityce]