Following the official announcement of election results by the National Electoral Commission, leading figures and their formal and informal advisers from the Platform began publicly commenting on what they called Morawiecki’s budget hole. They warned that this gap could force cuts to social services and key policy programs introduced by the Law and Justice government, framing the issue as part of a broader plan to deliver three hundred details within a hundred days.
Opposition rumors about the budget and economists’ letters
Izabela Leszczyna, the candidate for Minister of Finance, joined by Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, a senator and candidate for Senate President, along with economists such as Leszek Balcerowicz and Bogusław Grabowski, argued in the media that the current year’s budget, and the government’s plan for the year ahead, were at risk of collapse. The claim was that Morawiecki’s 2024 agenda would be more optimistic than reality.
In contrast, public opinion, particularly on social media, welcomed a different narrative. Economists circulated data from the Ministry of Finance and Eurostat, suggesting that public finances were solid and that 2024 could bring even better outcomes than forecasted.
The Polish Economic Network drafted a lengthy open letter to the opposition, emphasizing that austerity should not be the path forward. It urged continued support for major development investments, including in nuclear energy, maritime projects, ports, and the Central Communication Port (CPK). The letter asserted that the current state of public finances was sound enough to sustain growth.
Within days, the letter gathered signatures from more than a hundred economists across Polish universities and think tanks, a group unlikely to be sympathetic to the ruling party’s opponents.
Additionally, increasing public statements by opposition politicians about a supposed budget gap and deteriorating finances were met with a robust response from Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Finance Minister Elżbieta Rzeczkowska, who defended the government’s stance with data and projections.
The state of public finances
At a press conference, representatives outlined the budget’s status and general fiscal health at the end of the third quarter of 2023, and highlighted the primary spending items in the draft budget for 2024, which were within the constitutional deadline at the end of September.
Compared with late 2015, when the PSL–PO government concluded, the current period showed a stronger fiscal position. The year’s budget implementation appeared solid despite an economic slowdown in the first half of the year, attributed to tighter monetary policy aimed at taming inflation. In the first quarter, GDP contracted by 0.3 percent, and in the second quarter, by 0.6 percent.
From January through September 2023, budget revenues reached PLN 418 billion, or about 69.5 percent of this year’s plan, while expenditures stood at PLN 452.7 billion, or roughly 65.3 percent of the planned outlays. The resulting nine‑month deficit was PLN 34.7 billion, representing about 37.7 percent of the annual deficit target (the plan estimated a maximum of PLN 92 billion).
This year’s budget included substantial allocations for social programs, notably the flagship Family 500 Plus initiative, pensions and disability benefits adjustments, and the 13th and 14th pensions. Expenditure also reflected heightened defense funding in response to regional security concerns, including costs tied to recent tensions near the country’s eastern border.
State revenues and the debt context
As stated by the prime minister and the finance minister, the eight years of the Law and Justice administration saw state revenues rise by about PLN 305 billion, a gain of roughly 105 percent compared with 2015. The comparison underscored that the period of 2008–2015, under the PO–PSL government, had seen only a PLN 35 billion increase in revenues—from PLN 253.5 billion in 2008 to PLN 289.1 billion in 2015. In contrast, 2015–2023 yielded the substantial jump mentioned above, from PLN 289.1 billion to PLN 594.6 billion.
Public debt to GDP shifted by 7.5 percentage points during the PO-PSL era, reaching 51.3 percent, whereas under the Law and Justice government it declined by 3.6 percentage points to 48.4 percent of GDP. The 2024 budget projected revenues of PLN 684.5 billion and spending near PLN 850 billion, underscoring continued funding for essential social programs and strategic initiatives.
Key social programs
Allocated funds for Family 800 Plus reached at least PLN 64 billion, with pensions and disability benefits indexed by no less than PLN 45 billion. The 13th and 14th pensions accounted for about PLN 29 billion. Healthcare expenditures, including funds from the National Health Fund, totaled around PLN 191 billion, while defense spending stood at approximately PLN 158 billion, with roughly PLN 100 billion drawn from the budget and nearly PLN 60 billion from the Armed Forces Support Fund established under the Financing of the Armed Forces Act. The ongoing level of investment in social protections and strategic infrastructure—such as nuclear energy facilities, the Central Communications Port, and the port expansion in Świnoujście—made it difficult to justify claims of a looming budget gap or a retreat from public finances.
In this context, statements by Platform members about Morawiecki’s supposed budget hole appeared increasingly unsubstantiated to many observers.