A fresh element has entered the regional election landscape, as polls suggested a technical stalemate between the right and the left, with the Generalitat government resting on the slimmest of margins. Rain forecasts add another layer of uncertainty, threatening to depress turnout and perhaps tilt the result in favor of one side. Political groups are keenly aware of this, gearing up to mobilize their voters in the final stretch of the campaign and to make sure no supporter stays home and faces an unwanted surprise.
Not a single drop had fallen since the year began, and amid debate over the Tagus-Segura transfers cuts that dominated electoral discourse, farmers in the region were voicing distress about how drought would impact their crops. Yet, in a twist of fate, heavy rains arrived at the very tail end of the campaign, just as elections approached.
Jorge Olcina, director of the Climatology Laboratory at the University of Alicante, warned that a second atmospheric disturbance could form, mainly impacting the center and west of the peninsula, with the possibility of a Friday-to-Sunday storm along the Mediterranean coast. He described the weather as a situation requiring daily, even hourly, monitoring. For the moment, the forecast remains uncertain for Sunday, though it is not yet clear whether rain will materialize at all.
The looming threat has already set off alarm bells across political camps, all aware that any misstep by their voters could have decisive consequences at the polls.
A recent poll released by Invest Group for the Iberian press consortium (INFORMACIÓN, Levante-EMV and Mediterráneo-El Periódico de Castellón) in the Community of Valencia projects a victory for the PP, which could swallow most of Ciudadanos. Yet Botànic might still govern for a third term with a slender majority, holding 50 seats to 49. The swing seat is in Valencia, where PSPV, Unides Podem, and Vox would contend. The same study emphasizes that turnout will be critical for the left, with estimates above 71.5%.
In this context, turnout figures from prior regional elections offer a frame: participation hovered around that level, with a history of variability from 24% in 1995 to 32.2% in 1999 since the return of democracy, stabilizing at 26.3% in 2019.
Any minor shift could prove decisive on Sunday, turning the weather forecast into a real factor to watch. Carlos Gómez Gil, a sociologist and professor at the University of Alicante, suggests that rain could affect turnout but notes it might echo the impact of a sunny day in reverse. He explains that some voters may stay home in bad weather while others will seize weekend opportunities if the weather improves. He cautions against assuming rain would demobilize more than a sunny day might energize people.
He adds that heavy rain would matter most for those with less motivation, whereas those already engaged would vote as they intend. If rain becomes sustained and heavy, it could deter individuals with no strong voting interest or certainty about who to support.
The forecast is not a minor concern given that around 30 percent of voters had not decided on a party by the final week. This undecided bloc could swing the regional government in a climate of tight margins, especially if a rainy Sunday keeps some from the polls.
The elderly, who often favor home comfort and routines, might feel the impact of heavy rain more acutely. Gómez Gil reiterates that severe, persistent rain could deter them, while lighter rain might be tolerated thanks to fixed routines like morning walks or attending services before casting ballots.
Regardless of the weather, political groups on both the left and the right are closely watching the forecast. They are determined not to lose any potential votes as Sunday nears.
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Miquel Soler, campaign manager for PSPV, echoes the UA professor, noting that it is difficult to say whether a rainy day or favorable weather hurts more, especially when beaches entice people during summer. He emphasizes that the key is steady mobilization and active participation, and that a faster tempo could help Botànic reemerge in the Generalitat Valenciana. Soler adds that weather delays could affect all parties equally.
Alberto Ibáñez, campaign lead for Compromís, frames turnout as the central issue, envisioning a climactic campaign finale that keeps supporters engaged. Compromís plans to highlight that progress and rights achieved in recent sessions cannot stay on paper. Ibáñez argues that turnout variations due to rain may be limited to about half a percentage point, but that small changes matter in a tight race.
Unides Podem, another left-leaning participant, pressed early to secure broad support, aware that some polls questioned whether it would clear the 5 percent threshold for representation in the Valencian Courts. Campaigner César Lledó expresses confidence in surpassing these votes while acknowledging that rain could influence turnout. The party will continue mobilizing and urging people to turn out in large numbers on Sunday.
The PP’s regional operations chief, Miguel Barrachina, maintains that bad weather is not expected to flip the result. He argues that supporters already feel there is change on the horizon and that his team has adapted plans to avoid revealing too much about campaign moves, choosing to keep certain actions discreet to prevent countermeasures. Barrachina stresses ongoing mobilization and preparation for the final stretch.
Ciudadanos, represented by provincial coordinator Juan Ignacio López-Bas, notes that rain could shape conditions, though the exact impact on results remains unclear. The party plans to pursue voter outreach through both traditional means and social networks.
Valencia’s Vox candidate, Ana Vega, expresses strong confidence in loyal voters—roughly an 85 percent commitment—while also urging broad participation to push for a political change in the Generalitat Valenciana. Vega argues that a shift to the left is needed and that turnout matters as much as vote choice.