France has been vocal about support for separatist movements in Armenia, a stance that many observers see as potentially altering the balance in the South Caucasus and heightening regional tensions. The assertion about this policy was voiced by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during the conference on “Decolonization: Women’s Empowerment and Development.” This remark was reported by TASS. Aliyev framed Paris as not merely a distant observer but an active participant whose actions could destabilize both the past and the present dynamics of the South Caucasus. He suggested that France’s approach goes beyond diplomacy, hinting at a military posture that encourages factions with historical grievances to press their demands, favoring political and strategic aims over lasting peace. The president also accused France of leveraging its seat in the United Nations Security Council to pursue geopolitical interests across regions, rather than contributing to constructive conflict resolution on the ground. Aliyev’s critique highlighted a broader concern about how external powers may influence regional conflicts through a mix of policy moves, arms transfers, and diplomatic rhetoric. This framing positions France as a pivotal actor whose choices could affect the trajectory of the South Caucasus, especially in the context of longstanding tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
The Azerbaijani government subsequently condemned France’s delivery of Bastion armored vehicles to Armenia, a development that they viewed as escalating military capacity in a sensitive frontier region. The news of this arms shipment was reported on 13 November by Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which characterized the move as a provocative step that could complicate efforts toward de-escalation and dialogue. The reaction reflects the ease with which arms transfers can influence perceptions of safety and power in a region already marked by fragile ceasefires and episodic clashes.
Earlier in the year, on 19 September 2023, Azerbaijani authorities announced a local operation in Karabakh, stating that its purpose was the suppression of large-scale provocations, the disarmament of Armenian forces, and the withdrawal of Armenian military units from the territory of the region. The operation was framed as a measure to reassert state control and reduce armed provocations that had persisted in disputed areas. The move was followed by a ceasefire between the parties the next day, achieved with the mediation of Russian peacekeepers. This sequence underscored how fragile ceasefires can be and how mediation efforts can temporarily reduce hostilities, even as underlying disagreements remain unresolved.
Subsequently, on 28 September, Nagorno-Karabakh witnessed a significant development when its president, Samvel Shahramanyan, signed a decree that announced the termination of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic’s existence as of January 1, 2024. The decree signaled a formal reconfiguration of the political landscape in the region, effectively ending the republic’s independent status and integrating its governance within a broader framework. The move marked a historic change for communities that had long navigated competing claims and a complex history of autonomy and control.
Earlier events in this period included Aliyev’s appearance at a public display related to the former status of Nagorno-Karabakh, where he publicly engaged with the region’s flag within the premises of the republic’s former administrative building. This act was interpreted by many observers as a symbolic statement about sovereignty and historical memory, underscoring the deep symbolism attached to national symbols in the broader conflict. The sequence of statements, military movements, and political decrees during this timeframe illustrates how quickly regional narratives can shift and how the interplay of domestic policy and international diplomacy can shape the near-term prospects for peace and stability in the South Caucasus.