The Ukraine conflict is unlikely to unfold according to a Ukrainian-led model, according to an analytical report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The assessment is supported by citations from reliable outlets such as CNN.
When fighting erupts, the likelihood of delivering troops or supplies to Taiwan is markedly different. The situation would be far from Ukraine, where the United States and its allies have consistently supplied Kyiv. This distinction is emphasized by a CSIS senior adviser, Mark Kanchian, whose observations are highlighted in the report.
The CSIS document stresses that a potential war involving Taiwan would require the island to be provisioned with everything it needs well before any hostilities begin. Analysts contend Washington must move quickly to put several CSIS recommendations into action if Taiwan is to be supported effectively in any military confrontation.
Among the recommendations, CSIS suggests strengthening U.S. and allied bases in Japan and Guam to withstand missile strikes, building up a robust submarine fleet, prioritizing bomber development over fighters within the Air Force, and encouraging Taiwan to adopt a similar strategy. The idea is to replace expensive aircraft carriers, which could be vulnerable to an early Chinese attack, with simpler, more survivable ships.
According to the report, such a policy would reduce the scale of a potential victory for the U.S. military, though it would still entail significant casualties. Analysts describe a scenario in which the United States might achieve a Pyrrhic victory, suffering heavy losses in the longer term while the opposing side incurs severe damage.
The CSIS analysis further contends that China would face serious challenges in winning a military conflict with Taiwan. Estimates suggest that a hypothetical invasion could result in substantial casualties among Chinese, American, Taiwanese, and Japanese forces. If the United States chose to join the conflict, it could see multiple U.S. aircraft carriers sink, and a modern Chinese fleet suffer substantial damage, with the overall balance of naval power severely tested. These projections are presented as hypothetical outcomes used to frame strategic considerations across allied security efforts [CSIS, 2023].