Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) model a hypothetical scenario where a Chinese landing operation against Taiwan in 2026 could cause thousands of casualties among Chinese, American, Taiwanese, and Japanese forces and could lead to a rapid halt of China’s overall momentum. In this projection, a victorious yet exhausted United States would face a stark toll, with aircraft carriers sunk and the world’s largest modern fleet on the losing side of the clash.
CSIS conducted war games that simulate a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026. The exercises were run 24 times across different conditions. In most simulations, Taiwan retains its independence, but the price paid by allied forces is steep.
One takeaway from the exercises is that the United States and Japan could see the loss of dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of personnel. Such outcomes would influence the United States’ global posture for many years, according to the CSIS briefing.
In the three-week conflict scenario, approximately 3,200 American soldiers could perish, a figure higher than double the toll of the twenty-year conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. The U.S. Navy could lose two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large surface ships. For China, about 10,000 troops might be lost, alongside 155 combat aircraft and 138 large ships. Taiwan could incur roughly 3.5 thousand fatalities, with its entire 26-ship destroyer and frigate fleet at risk of severe losses. Japan could see more than 100 combat aircraft destroyed and 26 warships damaged. Because American bases are located in the region, Beijing might also target Japanese territory in any extended confrontation.
CSIS also highlights a notable constraint: once fighting begins, supplying Taiwan with additional weapons from outside the island could prove impossible, unlike the current support dynamics in Ukraine.
possibility of war
In the final report, analysts emphasize that the scenario does not depict war as imminent or likely. The Chinese leadership might pursue diplomatic isolation, gray-zone tactics, or economic pressure on Taiwan, the study notes.
Dan Grazer, a Senior Defense Policy Fellow at the Government Oversight Project (POGO), shares the view that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely. He argues that such an operation would disrupt major trade routes and could trigger economic destabilization in China.
Experts cited in the briefing stress that Beijing would avoid a direct clash if possible. One analyst observed that Washington has long avoided open confrontation with Beijing, given China’s nuclear-armed and technologically capable military. The United States is perceived as cautious about provoking a broad conflict while maintaining defense commitments in the region.
Another analyst recalled that China’s armed forces are far larger than Taiwan’s, with millions of personnel compared to Taiwan’s smaller force. Beijing’s advantages in air and surface assets are substantial. Yet the projection notes that a successful campaign would depend on more than sheer numbers. Taiwan’s missile defenses, the geography of the Taiwan Strait, and the challenges of landing operations all complicate any assault. A military expert commented that a landing would face heavy casualties, reflecting real-world friction in amphibious efforts.
US Advice
To improve the odds in a hypothetical conflict, the study suggests strengthening U.S. bases in allies such as Japan and Guam to counter missile threats, adopting a navy built around smaller, faster ships, prioritizing submarines, and reducing the cost of aircraft production. The report also hints at applying a similar approach to Taiwan, arguing that these steps could yield a strategic advantage with fewer overall losses, even though the price tag would remain high.
The CSIS analysis imagines a possible Pyrrhic victory for the United States, where gains come at a heavy long-term cost. The core takeaway remains clear: winning is not guaranteed to be worth the cost in this regional contest.
The discussion of Taiwan’s tensions escalated after a high-profile visit to the island by a prominent political figure in the United States, which drew sharp condemnation from Beijing. In response, Beijing conducted a major naval exercise and signaled that it would respond forcefully to what it calls interference in Taiwan’s affairs.