“It still works in favor of PiS by fulfilling all election promises, initiatives related to Poland’s material situation, social programs, supporting families, issues related to housing, etc. It seems to me that they give rise to to the belief that it is not worth voting for another party, because here everything is correct so far. No one else will offer anything better,” says Polish Academy of Sciences sociologist Prof. Henryk Domanski.
wPolityce.pl: We know the results of the three latest polls: two – by the Kantar studio and Social Changes – on Poland’s electoral preferences, and the third, asking them how we would vote in the referendum? What do they tell us?
Prof Henryk Domanski: Regarding the election declarations, we have been experiencing a tendency for a gradual increase in the ratings of PiS for several days. This is evident in both polls, and when it comes to Kantar, it is even more remarkable. Obviously, to say that this is a permanent trend, these studies need to be repeated. However, it is clear that the results of both polls are quite similar: PiS: 38 and 39 percent, PO: 30 and 29 percent. It can be seen that the strategy of PiS, or generally attracting PiS, improves its attractiveness. In turn, the platform is stationary. Tusk’s tours of the country and the arguments given in various places, i.e. the strategy of the PO, do not work.
What exactly works in PiS’ favor?
Perhaps a referendum issue. This is a PiS initiative, which is clearly connected to it and which is viewed positively, both when we see the turnout in the referendum and the third poll you ask about.
Both polls on electoral preferences leave no doubt about the dominance of the first two parties. However, there are differences regarding the third place on the podium. According to Kantaru, it is occupied by the left (8%), according to Social Changes: Konfederacja (13%).
The differences in the results of other parties, apart from PiS and PO, are not so great as to be given too much importance in the third place context. There are many indications that the Confederacy will not have this 13 percent by October 15. Poland’s changing attitude towards immigrants in general and towards Ukrainians in particular speaks in favor of the Confederation. We know very well. However, the government is not uncritical of Ukraine’s actions, not to mention the Ukrainian ambassador’s call to order a few weeks ago or the critical comments of members of the Polish government on the statements of Ukrainian politicians. People took it as proof that the government is keeping a finger on the pulse and taking it into account, especially guided by the security of the country.
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Who above and who below the threshold?
The left will enter parliament, and so will the Confederacy. The most interesting in this regard is the situation of the Third Way. Her entry into parliament is by no means certain.
According to the answers to the four referendum questions, almost all groups of voters answered ‘no’ to each question.
Moreover, these answers are between 75 and 85 percent. If these statements, which PiS would like to see, are confirmed by the majority of the electorate, then one can count on the fulfillment of the assumption underlying this referendum: that if someone takes part in the referendum, it is very likely that he supported PiS. So we can say that the referendum was a good idea by PiS. This is a factor that indicates the high position of PiS, and obviously not the only one, but certainly the most direct.
READ ALSO: OUR RESEARCH. How would we vote in a referendum? The same questions were asked on the ballot paper
It still works in favor of PiS by fulfilling all election promises, initiatives related to Poland’s material situation, social programs, supporting families, issues related to housing, etc. It seems to me that they give rise to to the belief that it is not worth voting for another party, because here everything is correct so far. No one else can offer anything better.
The only exception to the ‘no’ in the poll on the answers to the referendum questions is the view of the KO electorate on raising the retirement age. In other cases, this electorate also answers ‘no’, de facto in line with PiS expectations.
I believe that this also stems from a certain responsibility of the PO electorate for this party. He must support the PO, because it was she who, together with PSL, extended the retirement age. Hence the natural reaction.
In summary: PiS is well suited for Poland with the issues raised during the ongoing election campaign?
Especially when it comes to unemployment. Under capitalism, the people of all free-market countries fear unemployment the most. Even when unemployment is low, it is still the biggest threat. Always been like this. Losing your job is worse than low pay because work gives you a sense of security.
And what, what topic can attract voters to the opposition parties? Or rather, what else can the opposition cling to to raise the polls?
Abortion has always been a good keyword, although I doubt it will work. So far it hasn’t worked. However, most Poles are in favor of conditional, ‘moderate’ abortion, and this will not change. The percentage of people who are pro-abortion, in favor of women having the right to decide about this, will increase, because this is the case all over the world. So far, however, all these black and other marches in support of abortion have not worked against PiS. Even now, in my opinion, this is not a potential factor in winning the electorate. I think Tusk, or rather the PO, is still hoping that the October 1st march will change something, or possibly hoping for a repeat of the June 4th rise. We will probably then hear references to abortion and all the failings of the ruling camp, which he likes to emphasize or even make up. I think this will be an event that the PO is still counting on, it has some hope that, for example, the turnout will convince some voters that the PO is still quite strong.
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Source: wPolityce