Jonathan Haidt argues that democracies endure and function best when they maintain a dense social fabric, strong institutions, and shared narratives. When any of these elements falter, democracies can weaken, which helps explain some of the issues seen in Spain, such as the approach to education being managed by autonomous communities. Yet politics runs deeper than ideas alone. In the United States, Donald Trump secured about 70 million votes while Joe Biden received roughly 77 million, because Trump tapped into a simple but misleading message that resonated with people who believed a certain life and community they valued had vanished. This creates uncertainty, restlessness, and distress, which populist leaders readily exploit through appeals to identity and xenophobia. A similar pattern emerged with Brexit, where many Britons chose independence from the European Union despite remaining geographically and historically linked to Europe. Now attention turns to France.
The first round of France’s presidential election unfolded with expectations and a notable abstention rate of 26.3 percent. Emmanuel Macron, leading La République En Marche, captured about 27.9 percent of the vote, while Marine Le Pen of the National Rally received around 23.1 percent. The traditional parties, including theSocialists and Republicans, faded, failing to surpass 7 percent collectively in the ballot. The Communists and Greens each earned modest shares at 2.3 percent and 4.5 percent respectively. Only Jean-Luc Mélenchon, heading France Insoumise, remained significant on the left with roughly 22 percent, aligning with left-wing populist positions seen in other countries. The far-right candidate Eric Zemmour, representing Reconquête, polled about 7.1 percent, leveraging a strategy to soften more radical tones ahead of the runoff. The striking takeaway is that a large portion of voters leaned toward anti-establishment messages, and one-third of votes went to far-right options. When abstention is considered, it becomes clear that a majority of voters did not align with the traditional parties that have historically formed France’s political backbone. This signals a deep, enduring shift in the national electorate.
What follows is a contest between right and left, not a simple triumph over old divides but a fight between center-right and extreme-right camps. Macron and Le Pen are contending for the support that previously flowed to parties eliminated in the primaries. Some leaders, like Hidalgo on the center-left, Borne from the Republicans, and Jadot from the Greens, appear to enter the runoff with perceived advantages. Yet observers note that political promises can diverge from actual voter behavior, as Mélenchon suggested there would be no backing for Le Pen and that voters would decide for themselves, independent of what party leaders urged. Looking ahead to April 24, abstention is likely to remain high, as both candidates provoke broad segments of the population: Macron faces discontent among peasants and workers affected by inflation and diminished purchasing power, while Le Pen’s appeal remains strongest among more educated voters. In the broader narrative, questions about economic hardship and social identity shape voter choices in ways that go beyond policy detail.
France now stands at a crossroads marked by polarized currents—cosmopolitanism versus traditionalism, European integration versus nationalist reflexes, openness versus suspicion, moderates versus radicals, and candidates who promise continuity against those advocating broader systemic change. The European project itself feels strained as neither Le Pen’s nationalist right nor Mélenchon’s populist left clearly champions European or Atlanticist alignment. Some propose stepping away from NATO’s military framework and flirting with alternative security alignments, raising concerns about France’s future role within Europe. A new consensus on essential elements of national identity and Europe’s strategic posture seems increasingly elusive. This tension echoes broader worries about political shifts in other democracies and serves as a reminder that identity and governance are deeply intertwined with regional and global dynamics. The potential implications for policy, stability, and geopolitical alignment remain an area of active debate across the continent and beyond.
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