Not long ago, there was a moment when sharp words flew between two regional leaders. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad, a murderer and a terrorist, while Assad fired back, labeling Erdogan a fascist and a butcher. The exchange reflected a deep distrust that has shadowed Turkish-Syrian relations since the Syrian conflict began in 2011.
Since the start of the war, Turkey has mounted a visible military presence in Syria and at times supported various opposition groups. Erdogan has repeatedly signaled a desire to see Assad ousted, even as he has shown a willingness to engage with Damascus through back channels. Assad, for his part, has resisted international pressure to change course and has framed the conflict as a matter of national sovereignty and regional security.
By 2023 the tone shifted. The hostile rhetoric traded places with cautious phrases about possible contact. Erdogan hinted at direct talks with Assad, though any real meeting would be channeled through Moscow with Vladimir Putin acting as a mediator. The prospect of a direct encounter between the two leaders has kept many observers watching Moscow closely, hoping for a path to stabilization in the region.
In the meantime, other talks have moved forward. A pair of regional delegations, led by their countries’ deputy foreign ministers, planned discussions in Moscow about the ongoing Syrian war. Russia and Iran, both allies of Assad, are expected to play key roles in shaping any future arrangements on the ground. Officials described the Moscow talks as a continuation of ongoing coordination, focusing on technical matters rather than big strategic decisions, according to Reuters. Still, this meeting marked the highest-level engagement between Turkish and Syrian foreign affairs ministries in recent years.
Elections in Turkey
The next steps remained undisclosed: another round of discussions among ministers is expected in the coming weeks or months. A direct presidential meeting, however, would likely hinge on broader diplomatic traction rather than informal remarks from Assad. The presidential election in Turkey is scheduled for May. Erdogan seeks to leverage any opportunity for dialogue with Assad during periods of lower public support, hoping to craft a deal that could influence the fate of Syrian refugees who have sought safety in Turkey for years. The Turkish population has faced an inflationary crisis, pressuring the middle class and amplifying calls for quicker solutions, including the possibility of repatriation of refugees.
Assad has so far resisted meetings with Erdogan, even as Moscow continues to press for engagement. In a recent interview with a Russian news agency while visiting Russia, Assad insisted that any dialogue must begin only after Turkey fully withdraws from Syrian territory. On the ground, Turkish forces, supported by allied opposition militias, maintain control over several northern provinces of Syria, complicating any immediate path to a negotiated settlement.
Observers note that the evolving dynamic in Ankara and Damascus comes as regional players reassess their strategies in light of shifting alliances and domestic concerns. The possibility of renewed talks with Assad is now part of a broader conversation about stabilizing northern Syria, protecting civilian populations, and managing the flow of refugees. While the next steps remain uncertain, the circular pattern of diplomacy suggests that Moscow will continue to be a pivotal arena for discussions that could eventually influence both Turkish domestic politics and the trajectory of the Syrian conflict. According to Reuters, the contemporary approach emphasizes practical coordination and credible mediation over dramatic public declarations, underscoring a preference for incremental steps toward a broader settlement.