On Wednesday, Syrian rebel militias launched an assault against forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad, and by Friday the fighting had reached the outskirts of Aleppo, Syria’s second city, marking the first clashes near the metropolis between opposition groups and the Damascus regime since 2016.
Leading the new offensive is Hayat Tahrir al Sham HTS, the group that was once the al Qaeda affiliate in Syria but declared an end to international terrorism in 2017. The campaign arrives at a moment when Assad appears weakened by the partial withdrawal of his allies, Iran and its affiliated militias, and Russia, from the conflict in the country.
The attack signals the first major revival of Syria’s civil war, which had been stalled since 2020 when Turkey—the principal backer of the rebels—and Russia brokered a ceasefire that, while it did not stop Moscow and Damascus from bombing civilians, did curb large-scale ground offensives on the ground.
According to experts, the motive behind the current push is linked to Turkey. Turkish analyst Ömer Özkicilcik notes that the operation had been anticipated for weeks and was delayed to avoid any perception that its authors were aligned with Israel’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon. The move gained momentum after Turkey shifted from opposing the attack to giving a green light, a change he attributes to stalled efforts to normalise relations between Ankara and Damascus and to Turkish frustration with Russia’s limited cooperation in enforcing earlier Syria agreements.
Refugees and Talks
For more than a decade, Turkey has hosted the world’s largest refugee population, a little over three million people. With years of inflation and economic strain weighing on the country, a large portion of the Turkish public now wants the Syrian refugees to return home and pressures the government led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to reach an accord with Assad.
To date, Assad has refused to sit at the negotiating table with Erdoğan until Turkey withdraws from territories near the border. Ankara, with its own troops, controls several border areas adjoining Syria, and it funds, arms, and pays the salaries of many of the Syrian rebel militias.
Even so, Turkey remains a passive observer in this operation and acknowledges the rebels’ actions as legitimate, according to Turkish defense sources. Officials indicate the offensive will likely stay within areas previously captured by pro-Assad forces.