Tourism companies are enjoying a promising run as they approach what could be a record season. Reservations indicate a longer, stronger summer ahead, with demand set to surge beyond the usual August peak. In Spain, forecasts point to a summer that could surpass 2019’s pre-pandemic strength. Data from the World Tourism Organization show that 2019 levels already exceeded 1% growth despite subdued inflation, and this year is expected to mark one of the most expensive seasons on record. This momentum has spilled into stock markets, with tourism groups leading gains on major indices. Amadeus has emerged as the standout performer, leaping about 42% this year, followed by Inditex with roughly 38% growth. Other tourism-related firms have also risen, including Meliá (up around 37.6%), IAG, Aena, and a notable recovery for NH Hotels. Edreams, the travel-search engine, has surged nearly 65%. Yet, experts caution that while revenues may rebound in nominal terms, many groups still face inflation-driven pressure on real incomes, and consumers appear to favor shorter getaways.
Easter serves as a practical benchmark for what summer can bring in bookings. Spain reported an 18.5% increase in tourist arrivals in April year-over-year, reaching about 7.2 million visitors. International travelers spent roughly 8,480 million euros, up 22.7% from 2022 and about 20.1% above 2019 levels. “After several challenging years, there is a clear, positive recovery in tourism markets. Summer demand looks robust, and there are no signs of a looming recession within these companies,” noted Diego Morín, an analyst at the investment firm IG. During a visit to Santacruz de Tenerife, Industry, Trade and Tourism Minister Héctor Gómez rejected the notion that inflation has dampened tourism activity and described the coming period as exceptionally favorable.
All projections point to continued strength through the peak summer months, even as the economy remains affected by the pandemic’s aftershocks and ongoing global inflation that raises the costs of flights, lodging, and services. “Demand persists even with higher prices,” stated Raúl González, CEO of Barceló, at an information breakfast. He added that new generations are choosing experiences over other expenditures, a shift that benefits the sector. Virginia Pérez, investment director at Tressis, echoed the view that pricing has risen by about 20% versus 2019 while consumer demand remains resilient.
Optimism rests on several supportive factors: favorable weather that could extend into September, cooling energy costs, and the reopening of Asian markets as China relaxes restrictions. These elements bolster sector sentiment and reinforce positive stock-market trajectories. Joaquín Robles, an analyst at XTB, noted that bookings have surpassed expectations and that the sector could recover from the worst pandemic-era losses. He warned, however, that many travel groups carried heavy debts during the crisis and will need to service those obligations as they rebuild earnings.
Tourism GDP versus 2019
Virginia Pérez of Tressis suggests that even after adjusting for higher prices, tourism GDP remains below 2019 levels. She points out that the sector endured more damage from Covid than other industries, and airlines and hotels remain highly capital-intensive. Financing costs, supply pressures, and labor costs are all on the rise. Pérez cautions that while margins may compress, the sector could still pass higher costs onto customers in some cases, though the broader growth may slow. She also notes a trend toward technology-enabled players like Amadeus, Airbnb, or Booking as a way to diversify and strengthen resilience.
The IAG case illustrates the pandemic’s lingering impact. The group reportedly faced up to 10 billion euros in losses and had to borrow to weather the crisis. The 2022 annual report shows a net debt of around 10.4 billion euros, with airlines contending with high oil prices. Shares trade near the 2-euro mark, with some operating profits driven by solid demand across the network.
Amadeus, by contrast, reported gains of over 200 million euros in the first quarter, a gain of roughly 200% from the prior year. Meliá, however, posted a quarterly loss of about 500,000 euros, a far smaller loss than the prior year’s 59.3 million euros. Aena still posted a profit of 133 million euros after a loss of 53 million a year earlier, underscoring a broad recovery across airport and travel services. [Cited sources: market analyses and quarterly disclosures from industry observers and major travel firms.]