With price pressures pushing the industry forward, Spain’s tourism sector is sprinting toward what could be a landmark year. Demand is surging, and the industry is experiencing a robust rebound after the pandemic, initially driven by domestic travelers. This year, international visitors have returned in large numbers, and their mobility has become the backbone of growth.
Expectations point to foreign tourist arrivals reaching new highs and surpassing the 2019 peak of 83.7 million, the level recorded before the Covid disruption. The influx of international guests is expected to contribute a new, sizable injection into the Spanish economy.
Tourism income, the total spend of international visitors during their stay, is forecast to surpass pre-pandemic levels and set a fresh record. Projections sit around 82,000 million euros for this year, drawn from a consortium of the industry’s largest firms that includes Meliá, NH, Iberia, Globalia, Riu, and Amadeus. These estimates are reported by expert groups in the sector and corroborated by market analyses.
The anticipated level for the year marks an 18% rise from the 69.1 billion euros reached last year and roughly a 15% increase over the 2019 high of 71.2 billion, the last full year before the pandemic. The strongest wave of foreign demand is amplified by higher pricing in tourism, which together drive a substantial economic infusion.
However, the stated tourism income for this year is expected to surpass 1.4% of the record 2019 level in real terms, once inflation is taken into account in the latest updates from Exceltur, shared with El Periódico de España by Grupo Prensa Ibérica.
The macro outlook from industry leaders puts tourism GDP at a contemporary peak above a projected 178.8 billion euros for the year, reflecting about 12% growth over last year and roughly 13.6% above pre-Covid levels in 2019. This momentum is largely supported by firmer corporate pricing. Even after discounting rate increases, the sector’s real GDP remains only modestly below pre-pandemic levels; excluding rate effects, tourism GDP sits about 1% under 2019 figures.
Record after record until the pandemic
Spain has been counting tourism revenue as a steady record, bounded only by the pandemic interrupting progress. Bank of Spain balance of payments data show that 2019 reached a historic 71.202 billion euros in tourism revenue, treated as an export-like stream for the economy.
In 2020, travel shut down for much of the year due to global restrictions, slashing revenue to 16.177 billion euros and marking the steepest decline in nearly three decades. By 2021, international travelers injected about 28.9 billion euros into the economy, still roughly 60% below pre-pandemic levels and echoing late-1990s figures. Last year, income climbed to 69.1 billion euros, surpassing 2018 to become a new record, according to updated data from the Bank of Spain.
While the Bank of Spain measures tourism income through the balance of payments, the INE, Spain’s National Institute of Statistics, prepares the Egatur survey. There is often a gap between reported incomes and the expenses recorded in other sources. The INE survey includes all traveler expenditures, not only what visitors spend within Spain but also costs associated with transport and other travel-related services. Notably, shipping costs are not captured in the balance of payments.