Global tourism is on track to reclaim pre-pandemic levels in 2024. The UNWTO’s first barometer of the year shows international travel in 2023 reached 88% of those levels, with around 1.3 billion international trips recorded worldwide.
In 2023, income from international tourism reached 1.4 trillion dollars (1.28 trillion euros), amounting to 93% of what was earned in 2019.
The release points to latent demand, rising air connectivity, and a broader recovery in Asian markets and destinations as factors supporting a full recovery by year-end 2024, according to UNWTO.
Export markets in 2023 spanned Europe, the Americas and the Middle East. UNWTO projects that flows and spending will continue to rise through 2024.
The 2023 results surpassed expectations, driven by pent-up demand and the easing or removal of travel restrictions in many nations.
The strongest performances occurred in the Middle East, Europe and Africa. The Middle East led in relative terms, surpassing pre-pandemic visitor levels with 22% more arrivals than in 2019.
Europe, the world’s most visited region, reached 94% of its 2019 level, supported by intra-regional demand and travel from the United States. Africa recovered 96% of its pre-pandemic visitors, while the Americas reached 90%.
Asia and the Pacific were the slowest to rebound, reaching 65% of pre-pandemic levels. Recovery varied within the region, with South Asia at 87% and Northeast Asia around 55%.
According to UNWTO, many destinations posted double-digit growth in international arrivals in 2023 versus 2019. Four subregions exceeded pre-pandemic arrival levels: Southern Mediterranean Europe, the Caribbean, Central America, and North Africa.
Revenue is growing rapidly
UNWTO data also indicate that international tourism revenues will total 1.4 trillion dollars (1.28 trillion euros) in 2023, about 93% of the 1.5 trillion dollars (1.38 trillion euros) earned in 2019.
Total tourism export revenue, including passenger transport, is estimated at 1.6 trillion dollars (1.47 trillion euros) in 2023, roughly 95% of 2019 levels.
Preliminary estimates of tourism’s economic contribution, measured directly by gross domestic product, point to about 3.3 trillion dollars (3 trillion euros) in 2023, or roughly 3% of world GDP.
Predictions for 2024
UNWTO anticipates that international tourism will fully reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024, with early estimates suggesting a rise of about 2% above 2019 and around 1.5 billion international tourists arriving worldwide.
This forecast rests on Asia’s recovery pace and continued easing of economic and geopolitical risks. A survey of tourism professionals shows 67% expect better results in 2024 than in 2023, while another 28% anticipate similar outcomes. Only 6% expect a worse year for tourism.
The optimism assumes continued recovery across Asia, aided by planned reopenings of source markets and destinations that will accelerate global revival.
China’s outbound and return tourism is expected to speed up in 2024 due to visa simplifications and increased air capacity. China is granting one-year visa exemptions to several European countries and Malaysia until next November 30th.
Visa and travel facilitation measures are expected to promote domestic travel as well as travel to the Middle East and Africa, with Africa exploring a unified tourist visa similar to the Schengen model in countries like Kenya and Rwanda.
Europe is also projected to improve in 2024. Romania and Bulgaria are set to join the Schengen free-movement area, and Paris is hosting the Olympic Games this summer. The strength of travel from the United States, supported by a strong dollar, is anticipated to continue benefiting American destinations and other continents.
Risks remain
The report notes that persistent economic and geopolitical factors continue to challenge a sustainable tourism recovery and consumer confidence. High inflation, elevated interest rates, oil price volatility and trade disruptions could raise transportation and accommodation costs in 2024.
As a result, travelers may increasingly seek value and opt for shorter, closer trips, with a growing preference for more sustainable travel choices.
Staff shortages remain a critical concern for the industry as it works to meet rising demand. The evolving conflict in the Middle East could disrupt travel and affect traveler confidence, while geopolitical tensions and Russia’s ongoing actions alongside other risks are expected to weigh on confidence across the year.