Travel restrictions continue to loosen across the globe, with fewer countries demanding proof of vaccination, a negative test, or mask use for entry. About 62 nations have relaxed covid-related entry rules, including 39 in Europe, signaling a broad shift toward open travel. The travel industry now reflects a steadier supply of flights and packages in markets like Malaysia, the United States, Los Cabos, and Senegal. The tourism sector has been pulling away from the constraints of the pandemic, driven by demand from America and Europe while Asia lags behind with comparatively stricter policies, all amid concerns about potential economic storms driven by geopolitical tensions.
Recent data from the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer for the first five months of 2022 shows a notable rebound, with approximately half of pre-pandemic levels recovered and around 250 million international arrivals recorded. The report highlights that tourism recovery has accelerated in many regions, overcoming the challenges faced since the onset of the pandemic. The UNWTO emphasizes a cautious optimism as borders open and traveler confidence returns.
70% recovery
Within this context, the forecast for the year anticipates gradual improvement, with international arrivals rising to between 55% and 70% of 2019 levels, depending on the macroeconomic environment and geopolitical developments that could influence travel demand through the year 2022 and beyond. Global economic indicators also reflect a slowdown, with the IMF projecting a decline in growth from 6.1% in 2021 to around 3.2% in 2022 and 2.9% in 2023, impacting consumer spending and travel budgets.
Europe and the Americas are leading the recovery. In Europe, international arrivals surged roughly fourfold compared with the first five months of 2021, while the Americas saw more than double the numbers. Yet both regions remain below their 2019 baselines by 36% to 40%, respectively. Projections suggest Europe could see arrivals rise by 65% to 80% by year-end, while the Americas could achieve an increase of 63% to 76% compared with 2019 figures.
Asia and the Pacific have been bringing policy restrictions down gradually. Even with a 94% year-on-year rise in arrivals by May, overall figures remain about 90% below 2019. UNWTO forecasts at year-end point to about 30% of the 2019 level, signaling a still fragile but improving trajectory. The Middle East and Africa have shown strong gains, with arrivals up 157% and 156% respectively, but still sit 54% and 50% below pre-pandemic levels. Overall, regional recovery varies as markets adjust to evolving health, economic, and geopolitical conditions.
international spending
Some destinations have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels in terms of visitor spending, reaching 70% to 80% recovery in places like the Caribbean and parts of Central America, as well as southern Europe and the western and northern regions of Europe. The United States Virgin Islands, St. Maarten, Moldova, Albania, Honduras, and Puerto Rico have reported spending levels exceeding 2019 figures. The International Civil Aviation Organization notes that international air capacity in 2022 is projected to be limited to roughly 20% to 25% below full pre-pandemic capacity, shaping how travelers plan trips and how airlines manage schedules.
In terms of spending, travelers from France, Germany, Italy, and the United States have reached 70% to 85% of pre-pandemic levels, while markets like India, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have already surpassed 2019 benchmarks. Tourism revenues show a broader return to normal, with several countries reporting pre-pandemic levels or close to them. A growing list of nations, including Moldova, Serbia, Seychelles, Romania, North Macedonia, Saint Lucia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Pakistan, and Turkey, have seen tourism income rebound to or exceed what was earned before the pandemic. The overall trend shows a continued rise in tourism revenue as travelers resume international journeys across diverse regions.
Spain presents a notable example, with tourist revenue from January through May reaching 21.6 billion euros, closely approaching the 23.5 billion euros seen in the same period in 2019. Early-year weakness gave way to a stronger spring and early summer performance as May, April, and March posted gains above pre-pandemic levels, reflecting resilient demand and a refreshed travel calendar.