Spanish tourism stands on the brink of a landmark year. The sector, which enjoyed a record-breaking summer fueled by a surge in both domestic and international travelers and a notable rise in prices, expects even faster growth through the rest of the year. Projections from Exceltur, the lobby that groups roughly thirty of the industry’s largest players, suggest that the full-year GDP will hit historic highs in 2023, staying about 16% above pre-pandemic levels. These numbers reflect a resilient rebound that surpasses the performance seen before the Covid disruption while facing the ongoing cost pressures that have reshaped the travel landscape.
Against this backdrop of strong momentum and abundant data, large tourism groups acknowledge that the sector has not yet surpassed the level it would have reached had activity not ground to a near halt during the pandemic due to strict movement restrictions. Nevertheless, the collective view remains positive about the trajectory for the year as a whole.
Looking at the long view, if the pandemic had not occurred and growth had continued on its prior pace, tourism GDP would currently be higher than the forecast for this year. Exceltur, together with major industry names such as Meliá, NH, Iberia, Globalia, Riu, and Amadeus, notes in the Tourism Satellite Account prepared by INE that the sector bears a 222 billion euro gap since 2020 relative to a pandemic-free scenario. This gap underscores the enduring impact of the crisis even as recovery accelerates (Exceltur tourism perspectives, 2023).— Attribution: Exceltur
“Despite proven capacity to reawaken, Spain’s tourism activity remains below the level it would have reached without the pandemic years; it did not earn 222 billion euros between 2020 and 2023 versus the potential,” Exceltur reports in its latest outlook. The trend line in the historical series shows tourism-related production in the same period continuing to rise, yet still constrained by the lag from the health crisis (Exceltur tourism perspectives, 2023).— Attribution: Exceltur
Explosion after accident
The business association forecasts that tourism will keep expanding at a faster pace through year-end. Tourism GDP is projected to reach around 183.08 billion euros for the year, according to the latest upward revision. The sector posted growth above 14.7% versus last year and more than 16.3% above pre-Covid 2019 levels. If Covid had not impacted activity, Exceltur estimates, sectoral GDP could surpass 190 billion euros this year and continue rising without the collapse experienced in prior waves of the epidemic (Exceltur projections, 2023).— Attribution: Exceltur
Prior to the pandemic, the tourism sector was already delivering record results. In 2019, the sector closed with a tourism GDP of 157.355 billion euros. The complete halt of activity in 2020 reduced GDP by nearly 60%, taking it to levels last seen in the late 1990s. A timid restart in 2021 reached 97.127 billion, about 45% higher than the previous year but still 38% below pre-Covid levels. In 2022, the sector fully recovered, surpassing pre-pandemic figures and posting a tourism GDP of 159.490 billion euros, a year-over-year rise of 64% and a 1.3% gain relative to 2019 (industry data, 2022–2023).— Attribution: INE/Exceltur
All the losses since 2020, when viewed against an uninterrupted pre-crisis growth path, reflect what the sector could have achieved under a steady trend. Exceltur estimates that a pandemic-free scenario could push sectoral GDP to 222 billion euros, with large companies contributing to that total. Even amid a booming backdrop, the industry continues to feel the lingering effects of Covid and the need to rebuild balance sheets and investment capacity (Exceltur, 2023).— Attribution: Exceltur
If the robust growth in activity projected for this year to exceed 183.0 billion euros is confirmed, tourism would strengthen as a national economic engine, contributing more than a fifth of overall growth and lifting tourism revenues. The sector’s share of total GDP could reach roughly 12.6%, consistent with pre-pandemic weights and signaling a return toward that level of economic centrality (Exceltur projections, 2023).— Attribution: Exceltur
price increases
The strong pace of growth in tourism activity has been largely supported by higher rates charged by firms across the board. Tourism companies report notable revenue gains, driven by recovery in demand and inflation-driven price increases that began in the middle of the inflation wave and persist today. Prices are well above 2019 levels, with an average rise of around 18% across all tourism sub-sectors (industry analysis, 2023–2024).— Attribution: INE/Exceltur
Price increases in the tourism lobby respond to rising demand, the need to offset higher costs from inflation, and the push to offer higher-quality, more value-added products. Investments to position products in higher market tiers and to service debt accumulated during the pandemic are among the factors cited by industry voices (Exceltur, 2023).— Attribution: Exceltur
Despite improving sales and higher prices, demand continues to rise and profitability has not kept pace. The surge in operating costs driven by inflation has weighed on many firms, as price increases alone cannot fully cover all pressures. Energy and other input costs have risen more than 26% over the past two years, with labor costs up nearly 20% and financial costs higher as well, according to industry lobby estimates (Exceltur, 2023).— Attribution: Exceltur
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