The tourism sector posted a banner year in 2023 as bookings surged once more and travellers returned with a renewed gusto after the pandemic. The surge in demand helped many tourism companies report double‑digit gains, reflecting a broad rebound in global travel. Among the standout performers in Spain, airport operator Aena led the way with a substantial uptick, followed by the travel technology and services provider Amadeus. The hotel group Meliá surged on strong performance, and the airline group IAG also posted meaningful gains. The Ibex 35 index benefited too, delivering solid growth as investors became more confident about the sector’s earnings potential in early 2025. Analysts such as Joaquín Robles from XTB note that the tourism industry had endured the harshest blows during the lockdowns, with activity constrained by mobility restrictions. With reopening, a strong labour market and higher consumer confidence helped drive a rapid recovery across most airlines, hotels, and travel platforms.
The year began with some volatility. The Spanish benchmark opened lower, slipping as early sessions unsettled investors, yet several tourism constituents remained in positive territory. Meliá advanced, and Amadeus and Aena posted modest gains, while IAG lagged behind its peers. Robles points out that while activity rebounded to pre‑pandemic levels, the financial health of these companies varied. The period of lockdown had left many with large debts, and the path to balance sheet normalization differed from firm to firm. This divergence contributed to a mixed year for investors and underscored the importance of prudent cost management and efficient capacity planning in a recovering market.
In the latter half of the year, forecasts for some stocks were revised downward as analysts reassessed the pace of the recovery. A notable rotation emerged toward companies that could navigate a slower European economy, and some predicted that the European Central Bank might shorten its easing cycle sooner than expected. Market observers cautioned that the combined effect of slower growth and potential rate movements could weigh on stock prices, even in a rebound cycle. Diego Morín of IG Mercados commented on the evolving landscape, emphasizing the need to balance optimistic demand with the reality of macroeconomic headwinds.
Economic headwinds across major markets continued to shape the performance of tourism-related equities. Analysts warned that discretionary spending tends to be among the first cuts in a recession, which could temper demand for travel and entertainment. At the same time, China’s gradual resumption of travel remains a key factor, with tourism volumes still below the 2019 peak. For airlines, capacity constraints in recent years have surfaced as a cost challenge, complemented by labor shortages that have increased operating pressures. Executives highlighted the impact of higher wage costs and the shift toward more virtual communications, which have reduced some traditional business travel but maintained demand in other segments.
Looking ahead, the market consensus suggests a period of consolidation for several tourism equities. Forecasts indicate that growth may be tempered by the broader economic environment, and investors will likely focus on earnings resilience and cost discipline as drivers of future performance. The sector’s trajectory will increasingly hinge on macroeconomic developments, including consumer confidence, travel demand, and policy signals from major central banks. In this context, IAG serves as a case study in the challenges of diversification and strategic positioning amid sector-wide volatility, while Meliá, Amadeus, and Aena illustrate how strong brands and robust balance sheets can support steadier progress through a cycle of slower growth.
Values to monitor
These dynamics keep a close eye on leading tourism stocks, with Amadeus often highlighted for its potential to expand revenue streams and improve profitability as travel rebounds. Analysts suggest that its performance could reflect continued strength in booking volumes and efficiency gains. For IAG, observers note that any news about major alliances or mergers could set a new price path, but clarity around its strategic moves is essential for a reliable forecast. Meliá’s recovery story remains a focus, with attention on occupancy trends, pricing power, and capital structure as the company navigates post‑pandemic normalization. Aena’s outlook continues to depend on air traffic recovery, airport monetization opportunities, and efficiency improvements that support margin expansion.