For years, the Syria conflict appeared frozen since 2020, with borders and internal lines of control fixed and marked by fire on the map. The violence included extended periods of sporadic clashes and weekly bombardments that devastated civilians, schools, mosques, and hospitals, especially in the northwestern rebel-held areas where life ground to a halt for many families.
Little changed on the ground for a long stretch. The fighting between rebels backed by Turkey and the Assad regime, supported by Russia and Iran, stood at a stalemate. That stagnation broke on a recent Wednesday when the faction controlling Idlib, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, launched a broad offensive against Damascus and its allies. Within a day, HTS reportedly advanced across dozens of kilometers and seized towns that had long been under regime control, shifting the balance in a volatile theater.
HTS says its fighters sit now within six kilometers of Aleppo’s outskirts. The group, once affiliated with al Qaeda but claiming to renounce international jihad, remains the most powerful rebel faction with the deepest footprint on the ground. It is also the only major opposition force not receiving direct Turkish support, highlighting the complex web of regional backing and its limits on the battlefield.
Stop Bombings of Civilians
A Turkish source close to Ankara told Middle East Eye that the offensive seeks to compel Damascus to halt its relentless bombardments of civilians. The report underscores how the goal of the military push ties directly to humanitarian concerns and the wider calculus of regional power.
The opposition groups launched the operation as a limited strike toward Aleppo to target the sites from which bombardments originate. Yet what began as a cautious maneuver quickly grew in scope, as regime forces began to withdraw from the front lines and as the fight widened beyond the initial intent.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, nearly 100 people had died in the offensive that began on Wednesday, including 44 HTS members and 37 Syrian soldiers confirmed. Civilians were among the casualties, especially in bombardments carried out by Russian forces and the regime in the city of Idlib.
Allies in Retreat
There was a moment, around 2015, when Assad’s fate looked uncertain. The rebels and opposition, buoyed by international support, held a clear advantage in numbers and weapons. Yet Assad was saved by two key allies: Russia and Iran. The intervention of Russian air power and Iranian-backed forces, including Hizbullah in Lebanon, altered the course of the war and kept Assad at the helm, leaving a country ravaged by nearly 14 years of conflict.
Today the situation is more precarious than in recent years for the president. Most Hizbullah fighters who had been stationed in Syria have returned to Lebanon, where the militia has faced significant losses amid clashes with Israel. Moscow has pulled back a substantial portion of its contingent and equipment from Syria to focus on its own war in Ukraine, a conflict that has produced heavy casualties. Still, Moscow and Tehran maintain a limited presence in Syria to support a weakened regular Syrian army and to preserve influence in a country that has been shaped by decades of conflict.