The newly formed Polish Sejm is set to convene soon as ultraconservative Mateusz Morawiecki is named the candidate to steer the next government. Andrzej Duda, the president, entrusted the task of government formation to his fellow believer and the outgoing prime minister. The governing Law and Justice party, PiS, does not command a parliamentary majority. A pro European opposition bloc, led by Donald Tusk, has already signed a virtual coalition agreement, but it may take weeks before any meaningful power shift can occur, with several hurdles on the European stage looming ahead.
1. The party with the most votes and its European prospects
PiS, though President Duda’s party, has officially had its membership paused since his inauguration. It secured the most votes in the October election but lacks a clear majority or strong allies. It holds 194 of the 430 Sejm seats and does not yet enjoy backing from far right groups or libertarians. The Confederation, a right‑leaning bloc, prefers to chart its own path in opposition and currently holds 18 seats. The pro‑European opposition bloc controls 248 seats, yet three coalitions sit beneath it: Civic Platform led by Tusk with 157 MPs, the Third Way centrist faction, and Lewica on the left. More than a dozen smaller parties are aligned within this bloc, creating a broad, ideologically diverse coalition. A central goal is to prevent a PiS dominated legislature from eight years in power. Morawiecki has the task of forming a majority within 14 days of the constituent session to explore alliances or secure a vote. Tusk faces the challenge of gathering sufficient support, which could take weeks.
2. Reengaging with Brussels
Tusk’s agenda centers on change and, crucially, repairing strained ties with European institutions. He vows to lead talks with Brussels after the ongoing friction with PiS. The path is riddled with obstacles as funds to Warsaw, suspended since the pandemic, need to be restored. A successful return to power will require challenges to the judiciary, with reforms seen as compromising judicial independence by the European Commission. A fragile majority and limited Senate control complicate this effort. Promises to reverse or modify abortion restrictions face resistance from conservative quarters within the Third Way’s ally, and the left, Lewica, regards protecting LGTBI rights as essential. The stance is to end harassment and safeguard civil liberties, all while addressing a spectrum of legal and institutional reforms that matter to the European partners.
3. Maintaining a separation between state and church and the media
Tusk must navigate the delicate balance between state and church, a long standing alliance that under PiS has shaped Poland’s cultural and political landscape. Poland remains one of the most Catholic majorities in the European Union, with a large portion of the population following the faith’s social norms. Mass demonstrations over abortion access showed that Polish society is not monolithic in its beliefs. Unraveling church ties and diminishing state aligned media would not be straightforward. Since 2015 PiS has influenced the media landscape, including public broadcasting and national news agencies, drawing sustained criticism while critics face pressure from authorities.
4. Living with Duda
Tusk aims to govern again after his term as prime minister from 2007 to 2014, when he also held the role of president of the European Council. He will need to operate with a president who owes his roots to PiS. This situation echoes a past period when coalition dynamics and personal rivalries shaped government policy. The former long-time president, associated with conservative circles, faced national trauma after a fatal air crash abroad. If the new government takes power, the task will be to work with President Duda to approve laws and to consider replacing reforms advanced by PiS, especially those touching on social policies and governance. “This is a moment for clear, decisive leadership and practical compromise”, one observer noted, as the country weighs stability against reform.”}