Approximately 30 million eligible voters in Poland will head to the polls this Sunday. The political landscape features a choice between the long-governing conservative faction led by the Law and Justice party (PiS) and a liberal, pro-European shift associated with the Warsaw government under Donald Tusk. After eight uninterrupted years in power, PiS has included a referendum alongside the vote, aiming to legitimize its stance on EU immigration policy. Here are the core themes shaping the election conversation.
1. Liberal Tusk as the principal alternative to a third PiS term
Former Polish prime minister and ex-president of the European Council Donald Tusk returns to national politics as the main challenger to Parliament. He faces opposition figures such as Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Mateusz Morawiecki, and Andrzej Duda, who all hold leadership positions in their respective parties and institutions. The Civic Platform (PO) trails PiS in the polls, with the governing party polling around 35%. PiS portrays its opponents as compromising national strength and as puppets of Brussels and Berlin, emphasizing perceived external influence. Support for change exists among voters who see Tusk as offering an alternative path, while some European allies, including German conservatives, watch relations with Poland closely as the election unfolds.
2. Reframing asylum policy through a referendum
The ruling PiS, aligned with other right‑wing groups, has clashed with EU frameworks on asylum and immigration. Brussels has responded with dossiers and warnings concerning policies that affect fundamental rights, press freedom, and LGBT protections. Reforms perceived as impairing judicial independence and limiting immigration commitments have sparked ongoing debate. The referendum questions probe public opinion on accepting refugees from the Middle East and Africa under EU-displaced frameworks. While a Tusk victory might ease some tensions, it is unlikely to instantly resolve deep policy rifts with the EU, though it could open pathways to rapprochement.
3. Abortion and the status of reproductive rights
Poland’s current abortion laws are strict, with voluntary termination heavily restricted. In 2021, certain allowances, including those for severe fetal anomalies, were narrowed, and the country remains notably Catholic in practice and culture. Large-scale protests followed developments perceived as tightening restrictions on abortion. Advocates for reproductive rights emphasize the risk to women’s health and safety when access is limited. Tusk’s campaign has signaled a willingness to ease the existing rigidity and pursue more progressive approaches to the issue.
4. Enduring right-wing currents and the search for a new balance
The PiS movement sits within a broader field of European right-wing populism. It has drawn comparisons with other national leaders and movements within Europe. A fringe group has emerged that mixes nationalist rhetoric with libertarian and skeptical social policies. Although this far-right current has shown some electoral traction, it has not secured broad, stable support. Its proposals include rolling back social benefits for families and retirees, and officials have positioned it as a possible third option, though its influence has fluctuated in the final stretch of the campaign. At times, leaders from this spectrum have shown they could align with or distance themselves from PiS depending on political calculations.
5. Rural influence, Ukraine policy, and the balance of national priorities
PiS has traditionally drawn strong support from rural communities, including high levels of agricultural backing. The relationship with urban centers and the countryside has shaped much of the campaign narrative, including responses to regional economic concerns. In parallel, Poland’s stance toward Ukraine has become a focal point. The government has weighed grain imports and arms support as part of its broader policy stance. Debates over EU solidarity and national sovereignty have intensified as voters weigh the impact of Kyiv’s situation on Poland’s economy, security, and political posture. The campaign has highlighted tensions between maintaining EU and NATO commitments and addressing domestic priorities, especially in farming regions where rhetoric around national interests runs deep.