After roughly ten months of blockade in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, a territory with an Armenian-majority population that lies within internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan, tensions have surged in recent weeks. Baku launched a campaign this Tuesday, including bombings around Stepanakert, the regional capital, and other cities, according to statements from Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense. The announcement described the measures as a security operation and emphasized efforts to avoid civilian harm.
In recent hours, residents in the affected areas have faced a humanitarian emergency marked by shortages of food and medicine. Social media reports have circulated claims of initial air strikes by Azerbaijan, along with ongoing artillery and drone activity in and around the region.
Authorities in Baku stated that the objective was to carry out counterterrorism operations, aiming to suppress and disarm provocations from Armenian forces in the region. Officials claimed that front-line and rear-area positions, including artillery sites and military barracks, were targeted using precision weapons, while insisting that civilian infrastructure would not be attacked.
Azerbaijan has built its narrative around a return to military superiority after the 2020 conflict. The government contends that the recent strikes were a response to what it calls a minor Armenian attack. It alleges that a mine planted by Armenian saboteurs exploded near a civilian vehicle in the Jozhavand area, resulting in multiple fatalities and injuries.
A story that repeats itself
For more than a century, the Nagorno-Karabakh region, a mountainous enclave between the two nations, has been at the center of conflict. The dissolution of the Soviet Union led to the first major clashes in the Caucasus, and the ensuing war concluded in 1994 with Armenian gains but a lasting, volatile ceasefire. The toll was heavy, with tens of thousands losing their lives.
The fighting paused temporarily until 2020, when renewed hostilities broke out. In that conflict, Azerbaijan leveraged resources from its energy endowments to regain control over territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, including the city of Shusha. Armenian control over some adjacent areas diminished as a result, reshaping the map and muting some earlier gains from the ceasefire period.
Since then, the region has remained tense. Periods of calm have alternated with escalations, and the broader area has faced blockades, cease-fire violations, and sporadic clashes. Observers have noted that the front line fluctuates and that both sides accuse the other of provocations, contributing to a fragile stability in the area. Local voices describe ongoing concerns about civilian safety and access to essential services.
Analysts and regional representatives have underscored the importance of de-escalation and international engagement. The European Union’s representative for the South Caucasus has described the humanitarian impact as unacceptable and called for an immediate ceasefire and constructive dialogue. The path toward peace, many emphasize, requires sustained negotiation, mutual assurances for civilian protection, and direct talks between Baku and the Armenian authorities in Karabakh to address longstanding grievances and aspirations for coexistence.