France is living through a political earthquake with few precedents. A shock that keeps European chancelleries on edge, because France is not just any country. It is the cradle of the European project, its second-largest economy, and the only EU seat on the United Nations Security Council. Who governs France matters in Berlin, Brussels, and Madrid.
Emmanuel Macron decided to dissolve the National Assembly and advance elections. A bold move to clarify what the French want after his party’s debacle in the European elections and the surge of the far right led by Marine Le Pen. Since then, a chain of unprecedented events has unfolded, reshaping French politics beyond recognition.
First sign. “We must block the National Rally. I accept that. On Sunday I will vote for a communist candidate,” French statesman Édouard Philippe said on TF1. The remark was explosive. Philippe has served as Macron’s prime minister and founded the center-right Horizons party. Yet he plans to back the communist candidate in his district to prevent the far right from winning. His stance crosses ideological lines, underscoring that fear of Le Pen and populism — not party ideology — drives turnout. France is a republic built, in part, on the trauma of the Vichy regime and collaboration with Nazi Germany, a history that still haunts the southern regions ruled by Marshal Pétain.
The Implosion of The Republicans
Pétain is cast as a villain in France; the hero is General Charles de Gaulle, who refused to accept peace with the Nazi regime and led a government in exile. This context explains another major development: the collapse of The Republicans, the Gaullist successor party.
The party allied with the Spanish People’s Party is in its worst moment. Only 2.1 million French voters chose The Republicans in the first round, about 6.5% of the total who went to the polls. It was a crushing blow for the heirs of Union for a Popular Movement, the party that in 2002 won nearly half the ballots in legislative elections and delivered a parliamentary majority, with Nicolas Sarkozy becoming president in 2007.
Little remains of that glory, replaced by pre-crash hysteria. A survival duel, a political deathmatch. The president of The Republicans, Éric Ciotti, literally barricaded himself inside the party’s headquarters to prevent a forced ouster after proposing a surprise electoral partnership with the National Rally candidates. “It’s time to campaign with the right-wing alliance to beat the far left,” he said. He referred to La France Insoumise of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, another political outcast for the centrist and right-leaning electorate. A real-world rift that shows how fear of the far right can override traditional loyalties. It is not about a program or ideology; it is about stopping a populist tide. The party’s expulsion vote reflected a rare moment of upheaval in the French center-right, with the judiciary suspending the expulsion in a twist that felt like a television thriller.
The Youth of the Candidates
In contemporary France, political theater often feels amplified by youth. A few years ago Macron became the youngest French president in history at 39. This year, Gabriel Attal emerged as prime minister at 34, also the youngest ever. Jordan Bardella, leader of the National Rally’s campaign for prime minister, is 28. He could be poised to lead the country of the G7 at an age when many are still finishing studies or entering first jobs.
The question will be answered this Sunday. Bardella could be blocked by a political cordon sanitaire crafted by Macron’s coalition, Juntos, which brings together socialists, communists, and greens under the Nouveau Front Populaire. The strategy has been to withdraw from districts with more than two candidates, preventing vote dispersion. The number of such triangular and quadrangular districts has reached an unprecedented 311 of 577, reshaping the path to the second round.
Social Tensions
In this remarkable France, other, harder-to-measure forces are felt in conversations with ordinary citizens, political analysts, public officials, and journalists: the situation feels abnormal. This is not just another political cycle. The far-right surge in the European elections, reaching around a third of votes, triggered alarms among opponents and sparked a wave of political and social anxiety with uncertain outcomes. Some speak of a slow death of the Fifth Republic, while others, including the president, warn of possible civil strife.
There is no hyperventilating, but tensions are high. “Honestly, I’m white. With all these people of color, do you think we’re not afraid?” a French business owner told reporters, while workers, including undocumented immigrants, protested outside for higher wages.
The Interior Ministry confirms 51 seriously violent or verbal assaults against candidates or supporters, with around thirty arrests of attackers from all sides. One attack targeted the government spokesperson, Prisca Thevenot. The government has deployed security measures with 30,000 police and gendarmes, including 5,000 in Paris and its surroundings. Protests are predictable, but they are not unusual for France.