A questionable restraining order France. The cancellation of the Council of Ministers last Wednesday increased rumors that there would be a new development in the neighboring country. A possible change of government, even a new prime minister, has been floated. In his traditional year-end speech on December 31, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, promised that 2024 would be filled with action and determination. Yet the first week was dominated by questions about governance. An Elysée advisor told Le Monde that the president has suspended the deadline for an indefinite period, leaving everything possible on the table, including a potential reshuffle of leadership.
Rumors of reshuffles are a long-standing feature of French politics, especially in moments of crisis. After protests in the suburbs at the end of June, speculation had already grown that Borne might depart and that Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin could replace him. The outcome ended up being a more modest change: eight ministers out of forty were replaced.
Almost six months later, a similar scenario resurfaced. A tough immigration law was set to be approved on December 19. The prime minister noted that the measure included numerous provisions appealing to the Republican right and the far right, some of which might be unconstitutional. The text was adopted with votes from the Macronist coalition, the Republicans, and the National Rally. This led to the resignation of Health Minister Aurélien Rousseau and Borne’s former private secretary, while universities threatened possible resignations and three other ministers raised concerns about the controversial legislation.
Will Borne be forgotten after 2023?
France endured the largest wave of union protests in the 21st century over pension reform in the first half of the year, followed by turmoil over immigration policy. Macron faced a deeply challenging domestic political year. A year later, Borne appeared to offer political insurance for the president’s camp. Many within the Macronist circle spoke of a new page, a renewal, but questioned which personalities and what government structure would lead the change. François Bayrou, leader of MoDem, noted that the president must decide, as his coalition includes Renaissance and Horizons in partnership with former prime minister Édouard Philippe.
Borne has been described as the arm of the presidency rather than the head of government. Since May 2022, he has faced criticism for his performance and for a relatively low political profile. Before joining Macronism in 2017, he served in ministerial cabinets for the Socialist Party, though he was never a member of the conservative party family. At sixty-two, he spent more than a year and a half in Matignon, and remains the least popular prime minister of Macron’s tenure.
Some observers say he embodies what they call macronist authoritarianism, noting that he has invoked Article 49.3 of the Constitution on multiple occasions to pass laws without a parliamentary vote. He is the second prime minister to use this instrument most in the history of the Fifth Republic. In the end, Borne’s political fragility mirrors broader difficulties for Macron in securing a stable majority in parliament. The question remains how long this will endure and whether reshuffles can resolve the parliamentary deadlock.
Pressure of European elections
Immigration policy has intensified speculation about a possible Darmanin appointment to Matignon, with the most discussed names this week including Bruno Le Maire, Sebastien Lecornu, and Christophe Bechu. However, surprise moves cannot be ruled out, and some insiders expect continuity rather than a bold change.
Macron is known for tolerating shifts in his prime ministers. Yet with around 150 days left before European elections, the stakes are high for the center and the far right alike. Polls show Marine Le Pen’s party leading with around 30 percent of the vote, roughly ten points ahead of Macron’s coalition. The June elections are seen as a potential turning point that could push the president into a difficult position.
In a December 31 address from the Elysée, Macron promised opportunities to outline how the nation would face upcoming challenges. He had previously hinted at a January meeting with the nation, though public enthusiasm for frequent presidential pronouncements has been guarded. The Elysee had tested similar initiatives in September, but those efforts largely resulted in brief interactions with party leaders rather than a broad national reconciliation.
Looking ahead to 2024, France faces a year of symbolic milestones that could shape its trajectory. The 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings stands alongside preparations for the reopening of Notre Dame and the Paris Olympic Games. Macron’s administration risks being pulled by domestic tensions, potentially constraining its influence at European and international levels.