Choosing between change and continuity. With that message, the lead candidate for the French far-right party, the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, closed his European election campaign. The call for change has helped propel the 28-year-old pro–Le Pen figure toward the top of polls, with roughly a third of voters expressing intent to back him.
“Next Sunday, abstaining is a vote for Macron,” Bardella asserted during his remarks. The National Rally has presented the European Parliament race as a plebiscite on President Emmanuel Macron’s policies, which have left his popularity at some of its lowest levels in recent years. Irregular migration, security concerns, and eroding purchasing power have emerged as central worries among many French voters.
“People work, work, work… and still can’t live well. This shift is understandable, but it isn’t a solution,” says Faid, a Parisian taxi driver quoted by El Periódico, a media group in the same publishing stable, referring to the rise of the far right in the country. In his view, Macron’s government faces accumulating, unresolved problems while steering a message detached from everyday life. Analysts note these dynamics have helped the far right pull ahead in polls, with about 17 points separating Bardella from Valérie Hayer, the Renaissance candidate aligned with Macron, who trails at around 15.5%.
The useless vote
One in two French voters believes their ballot in the European elections this Sunday will not alter their situation. That sentiment appears in polls, which project participation dipping by nearly two percentage points versus the 2019 vote. This sense of disillusionment is reflected in the standings of parties like the Socialists led by Raphaël Glucksmann, at about 13.5%, La France Insoumise under Jean-Luc Mélenchon at about 9%, and the Republicans at around 6%, according to Ipsos data. France is preparing for a record-breaking European vote with 38 lists and 81 seats to be filled.
The return of protectionist rhetoric has already featured prominently in the European campaign. Unlike five years ago, euro-skepticism has waned after the Brexit experience. On the other hand, France’s greens show only modest strength, with around 5% of voters expressing intent to back their platform.
The war and austerity in a time of crisis
The French role in the Ukraine conflict and defense spending have fueled another major debate in the campaign. The Macron government has defended a strategy of making Europe more sovereign on military matters and of strengthening national defense production. Critics argue that this stance has been paired with austerity measures at home, creating public pushback and shaping the public vote in opposing directions.
The same divisions appear in migration policy. Mélenchon’s left seeks to overturn the current migration and asylum pact and to replace Frontex, the European border agency. The far right clings to its idea of a “dual frontier,” though Bardella has not clearly explained how such a model would be implemented. Meanwhile, Renaissance presents a plan built around a migrant pact, prioritized visas, and a stronger border guard to curb irregular migration.
The European elections serve as a prelude to France’s presidential race in 2027, and if the National Rally wins, Marine Le Pen could once again set her sights on the Élysée Palace, this time without Emmanuel Macron, who cannot run again if constitutional rules hold.