Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula this week, rainfall appeared in fits and starts, sometimes accompanied by storms that stirred a spark of hope in the fight against drought. The downpours were intermittent, concentrated only in very specific areas, and so far they have not meaningfully increased water reserves across the region.
The pressing question remains: will the wet spell extend into next week? Medium-term forecasts already point to a period of continued instability between May 15 and 21, with unsettled conditions likely to persist.
Now the State Meteorological Service, known as AEMET, offers a slightly clearer estimate. In summary, temperatures are expected to be cooler than average and rainfall likely to be higher than usual east of the peninsula.
The agency describes this as an atmospheric pattern change. Temperatures are projected to stay below normal, a pattern more typical of March or April, according to AEMET in a recent communication. More importantly for rainfall, the forecast points to an unstable atmosphere with periods of rain, with the heaviest precipitation expected along the Mediterranean strip, including parts of the eastern coast and the southern portion of Catalonia.
Next week, from May 15 to May 21, is forecast to feature a change in the atmospheric pattern. Temperatures are expected to run cooler than usual, aligning with conditions more common in early spring. An unstable atmosphere will bring bouts of heavy rain, with the strongest rainfall anticipated along the Mediterranean zone, according to AEMET’s outlook for the period.
— AEMET’s update for the period outlines cooler-than-average temperatures and a notably unstable weather pattern with significant rainfall concentrated in the southeastern part of the peninsula and the southern half of Catalonia. Observers will watch closely to see how the forecast unfolds as the week progresses.
In a broader view, the map linked to AEMET indicates the most pronounced precipitation anomalies located in the southeast and the southern Catalonia area. The coming days will reveal whether these projections hold true as local weather conditions evolve.