There can always be last‑minute surprises, much like in 2019 when political divisions and cross‑vetoes forced a reshuffling of nominees. Yet, just days before the European Council on June 27 and 28, which will decide who leads the new EU institutional top trio, the familiar three names remain the favorites to fill the three high offices. Despite Giorgia Meloni’s ire at being left out of negotiations, the trio that has consistently topped polls in recent days persists: Ursula von der Leyen from Germany (PPE) to again head the European Commission, António Costa from Portugal (S&D) to chair the European Council, and Kaja Kallas from Estonia (Renew) to guide European diplomacy. The Maltese MEP Roberta Metsola remains the candidate for the European Parliament role, though the principal three continue to anchor the lineup.
Other names have floated around, from Belgium’s acting prime minister Alexander De Croo to Denmark’s prime minister Mette Frederiksen, Croatia’s prime minister Andrej Plenković, and former Italian premiers Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta. Yet none of these figures has displaced the triple Von der Leyen–Costa–Kallas as the stable option that respects political, geographic, and gender balance required for the EU leadership. “I hope we agree at the start and have a European Council as ordinary as possible”, a senior European official commented, hoping to open Thursday’s meeting with the agreed puzzle in hand and avoid a crunch summit like the one five years ago.
Even though there is urgency to close a deal, the informal June 17 gathering ended without an agreement after a three‑hour dinner and separate talks among the three families of the outgoing Euro‑Parliament grand coalition. In front of the table sat Donald Tusk from Poland and Kyriakos Mitsotakis from Greece for the PPE, Olaf Scholz from Germany and Pedro Sánchez from Spain for the Social Democrats, and Emmanuel Macron from France and Mark Rutte from the Netherlands for the Liberals. Their outreach, used to gauge positions and bridge gaps, caused irritation among those who had to wait in their offices for hours while the negotiators did their work. Some officials described the event as a choreographed performance crafted by President Charles Michel’s team.
Restricted consultations and expectations
“Last time they held talks before the meetings or asked for breaks. I hope they learned the lesson because the animosity was intense. Even as the negotiator, you do not get a free pass not to show respect to others”, European sources warned, pointing to the frustration of some leaders who had to wait several hours as the six negotiators spoke for themselves. They also noted the choreography of the talks, blaming Michel’s team for designing the session’s rhythm.
The idea of sealing a pre‑agreement on Monday collapsed for several reasons. It was an informal dinner with no heavy political pressure to decide. The PPE’s drive to grab power and push Social Democrats and Liberals aside as mere attendants did not help. The demand to share the presidency of the European Commission and the European Parliament, couple with holding half of the five‑year term of the European Council, was a red line for the Socialists. Tensions with Meloni, Petr Fiala of the Czech Republic, and Viktor Orbán in Hungary did not help either.
Meloni’s position strengthened but wary
Their respective parties, aligned with the ECR and the Non‑Inscrits, have gained strength in recent elections and want a slice of the cake. Yet, according to Kaja Kallas, Meloni did not seek any top job during the talks. Support for Meloni is not strictly necessary to confirm Von der Leyen, who needs a qualified majority in the Council and at least 361 of the 720 votes in the European Parliament. The coalition of PPE, S&D, and Renew Europa appears to hold a majority. In the past week, that coalition’s numbers shrank when deputies from ANO led by former Czech prime minister Andrej Babiš left the Liberals, pushing Macron’s bloc to fourth place and narrowing the provisional tally to 398 seats, a margin described as tight by some voices.
Both the northern and southern wings recognize that even with favorable numbers, Roman backing will be essential. The compromise with Meloni, who leads Italy’s third-largest economy in the euro area, will likely involve a significant post in the next European Commission. Italy’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister, Antonio Tajani, has openly stated what is sought: a strong vice‑president of the Commission, a powerful commissioner, a policy line supporting industry and agriculture, committed to climate action, but not in a fundamentalist way. Diplomats in Brussels acknowledge that the Italian prime minister’s involvement is important and that she must be part of the agreement.
“It feels surreal, and I said so in the European Council, that when we met after the elections, even informally some proposed names for top posts without reflecting the voters’ mandate”, Meloni warned in an interview with Il Giornale this week. The message, she argued, is that the EU’s epicenter has shifted to the right, signaling a need for a change in European dynamics.
Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, who also sides with Meloni and Orbán, agrees that the agreement among the main players is near. He notes that the PPE, after listening to voters, ended up aligning with the Socialists and Liberals, and that a deal was reached to share the leading roles. Yet he criticizes the process, accusing the bloc’s leadership of disregarding the will of the European electorate. Orbán echoed the sentiment, adding that the political centers have moved and must reflect that shift in the EU’s post‑election balance.