The deal on how top European Union positions will be shared has arrived in Brussels already pre-cooked for the EU leaders’ summit, set for Thursday and Friday. Yet a major question lingers: what role will Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni play? She is reportedly outraged at being left out of the pact being shaped by the alliance of center-right, social democrats, and liberals that would elevate Ursula von der Leyen (European Commission), António Costa (European Council), and Kaja Kallas (High Representative for Foreign Affairs) along with Roberta Metsola (European Parliament). Meloni even arrived at the European Council headquarters without speaking to reporters. “There is no Europe without Italy, and there is no decision without Meloni,” commented the conservative Polish leader Donald Tusk, signaling his support while acknowledging the tension.
At this moment, Italy is not alone in withholding support. The pact has also not been backed by Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia, the three countries that represent the larger six-nations negotiating bloc. If this disagreement persists, it could reveal a rift among the Twenty-Seven, though practical consequences would be limited since a qualified majority is enough to approve the package and align the institutional puzzle. The arithmetic already favors the three blocs within the broad coalition. There are precedents for leaders not elected by unanimity. Luxembourg’s conservative Jean Claude Juncker, for instance, was elected in 2014 despite votes against from Viktor Orbán and David Cameron.
The overarching aim of the European leaders remains to reach the most inclusive agreement possible with broad consensus. “Let me be clear: no one respects Prime Minister Meloni and Italy more than I do. Sometimes there are political platforms needed to move the process forward, but the final decision rests with Meloni and the other leaders at the summit,” Tusk said, attempting to reassure Rome and bring Meloni into the fold, especially since she had not issued statements upon her arrival. The same sentiment was echoed by Germany’s Olaf Scholz. “This is just one position. We will discuss it carefully and fairly. All 27 members matter equally. It is also crucial for me that the Council and the member states craft a proposal that can win a majority in Parliament,” the chancellor added.
Nevertheless, seeking Meloni’s buy-in or at least a neutral stance does not imply backing away from the previously agreed framework forged a few weeks earlier by the six negotiators—Olaf Scholz, Pedro Sánchez, Donald Tusk, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Emmanuel Macron, and Mark Rutte. They attempted to brief Meloni by phone and then explained the outcome at a teleconference, but those efforts did not succeed in securing her immediate endorsement. On Thursday, all three bloc leaders who arrived for the summit reaffirmed their support for the agreement, which must be ratified by a qualified majority and, in the case of von der Leyen, also approved by the full European Parliament where 361 of 720 lawmakers are needed for backing.
Orbán’s response was not identical to the others. Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister, signaled opposition months ago. “What matters is inclusivity. The division between right and left isn’t productive. It shouldn’t hinge on merits alone. If it were about merit, the PPE, the Socialists, and the ECR would be in the lead, but RenewEurope shows this is clearly a party-driven deal. It’s a disgrace,” he argued, criticizing the distribution of offices that he believes does not reflect the electoral outcomes.
If the objective is to bring Meloni on board or at least keep her from opposing the pact, that does not necessarily mean discarding the agreement that was sealed earlier. The leaders who negotiated the package also tried to keep channels open with Meloni, hoping to secure her abstention or cautious support rather than outright opposition. On arrival at the summit, each of the three blocs reaffirmed the agreement and their intent to see it endorsed by a majority, with the Parliament’s final endorsement still necessary in von der Leyen’s case to reach the required votes. The path forward remains delicate, with diplomacy required to bridge the gaps between national priorities and the collective EU agenda.
In Brussels today the mood is one of cautious optimism, tempered by realpolitik. The leaders know that a broad consensus is essential for stability and effective governance in the EU, especially at a moment of internal and external pressures. The debates continue, and while there is unity in some areas, national sensitivities—particularly Italy’s—keep the backroom discussions lively. The summit will test not only the viability of the agreed framework but also the capacity of the union to forge a common front that can withstand the political currents of its member states and still project a coherent voice to the world.