The two dates are drawing unusual attention in current political discourse. An Italian politician remains a central figure as the spotlight shifts. The first milestone, in chronological order, is the 23-J Spanish elections. The second is Poland’s looming general elections. Observers note ongoing research within the European People’s Party, with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as a focal point in discussions about a possible face-to-face alliance ahead of the 2024 European elections. Yet the EPP has shown discomfort with some of Meloni’s more radical allies, and the European Conservatives and Reformists have pressed to complicate any rapid accommodation.
Poland’s political landscape stands out clearly. The next general elections are scheduled for October and are expected to feature two main contenders, barring surprises. The incumbent premier Mateusz Morawiecki, from the far-right Law and Justice party, will square off against Donald Tusk, the leader of the main opposition, the conservative Civic Platform. The friction is reinforced by ideological alignments: Morawiecki is affiliated with the ECR, while Tusk is linked to KKD, turning the competition into a clash of blocs. There is also a note that Meloni did not succeed in persuading Polish voters to back a European immigration plan.
troubled classmates
The rhetoric remains the central issue on the European stage. Observers point to a broader challenge to European integration, suggesting it partly reflects the stance of the Spanish faction. At the last PPE gathering in Rome, participants reportedly made clear that significant differences persist. The PPE is looking for alliances with forces that are constructive and aligned with European unity, rather than allies who might undermine it, according to Valerio Valentini, an Italian journalist who attended the event.
Valentini further notes that the Meloni question centers on whether she should become one of the key leaders. Arturo Varvelli, a political scientist with the European Council on Foreign Relations, adds that Meloni’s aim to position herself as a steadfast ally of NATO and a strong supporter of Ukraine also helps explain her attempts to shape her image in European politics.
Despite the hurdles, analysts see possible paths forward for Meloni. One option would be to pursue a standalone agreement with the PPE, excluding the rest of the ECR, a move that could trigger turmoil within the ECR—an alliance she has chaired since 2020 and was recently reappointed to lead for another term. Another possibility involves negotiating within her own group to maintain cohesion, even as factions threaten to displace her preferred alignments.
Italian partner
MEP Nicola Procaccini, co-chair of the ECR, dismisses both scenarios, arguing that Meloni’s departure from the ECR would be unthinkable. He asserts that a practical alliance among like-minded forces is already visible whenever votes align, driven by shared principles, values, and programs. He spoke to El Periòdico about the future, suggesting a shift in the European Parliament toward the right, while ruling out a formal pact with socialists. He also hints at the possibility of an informal, de facto arrangement as a compromise.
The internal dynamics remain delicate in Italy. On one hand, formalizing a final alliance with the EPP could be difficult for Meloni’s conservative base. On the other hand, Meloni’s government ally in Italy, Matteo Salvini of the League, is part of a different European family, Identity and Democracy. Even so, Francesco Lollobrigida, Meloni’s minister and brother-in-law, stated recently that a future alliance remains possible, keeping options open while balancing domestic and European constraints.
amenities
In reality, the push for a PPE-backed arrangement with Meloni continues to have strategic appeal. There are several considerations driving the interest. First, Forza Italia, once led by Silvio Berlusconi and now a member of the PPE through its historical lineage, remains vulnerable in European elections, possibly affecting the PPE’s strength in the 2024 Parliament. A successful agreement could preserve an Italian voice within the PPE at a critical moment.
The second factor is that the PPE would benefit from a coordinated ECR stance to secure a broad majority in the most consequential votes, regardless of how the 23-J and Polish elections unfold. Recent polling indicates strong momentum for Meloni’s bloc, with projections suggesting it could secure a sizable share of the vote, underscoring the strategic importance of alignment across centers-right forces for shaping European policy agendas.