Electricity Price Outlook and Iberian Adjustment

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The electricity price for tomorrow shows a likely dip with several movements beyond 7 percent, reaching around €204.2 per MWh, as indicated by the results from the auction held this Thursday in the wholesale electricity market. This figure includes the adjustment payments required by beneficiaries of the gas ceiling to support power plants that rely on gas to generate electricity. Data from the Iberian Electricity Market Operator (OMIE) and the Iberian Gas Market (Mibgas) show that the wholesale price without the Iberian adjustment would stand at €214.31 per MWh. In Portugal, where the gas cap for electricity generation is also applied under the so‑called Iberian exception, the price aligns with Spain due to the shared market. Across Europe, electricity prices vary: Italy at 263.59 euros per MWh tomorrow, France at 260.47 euros per MWh, Germany at 260.65 euros per MWh, and the United Kingdom at £182.86 per MWh (approximately €211.11 per MWh at current exchange rates).

Auction and setup

If only the wholesale market auction results are considered, excluding the gas ceiling adjustment paid by the right holders, the price per MWh would drop to 134.33 euros. Excluding these adjustments, the highest price is likely to occur between 21:00 and 22:00, reaching about €202 per MWh, while the lowest price is expected between 15:00 and 16:00 at roughly €92 per MWh. In practice, the actual amount paid also reflects the gas power plant adjustment costs, which vary with the volume required and the system price, affecting households and beneficiary companies alike. The current average correction for consumers stands around €69.9 per MWh, while the final price settles near €204 per MWh, about 5 percent lower than the price from the same period last year. These figures come from OMIE and Mibgas data and reflect how the market operates with the Iberian adjustment in place. Source notes: OMIE, Mibgas.

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