In a striking development for the Iberian energy scene, tomorrow’s wholesale electricity price is set to drop by 26.81%, landing at 115.07 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). This marks the most favorable price point observed in October and the second-lowest since the gas cap began applying in mid-June last year. (Source: Iberian Electricity Market Operator OMIE and Iberian Gas Market Mibgas.)
Data from OMIE and Mibgas show that this level sits just below last Sunday’s 97.72 euro/MWh on 25 September, continuing a three-day streak of price declines across the wholesale market. What matters here is the broader context: even without the Iberian mechanism, the wholesale price would hover around 128.49 euros per MWh, which means about 13.4 euros more per MWh than the current adjusted figure. (Source: OMIE, Mibgas data.)
Today’s Sunday issue reflects a 11.10 euro/MWh adjustment added to the base 103.97 euro/MWh wholesale price. That adjustment is financed by beneficiaries of the gas cap to help compensate power plants and, by extension, electricity generation. The net result is a price that better reflects market conditions while still offering relief to consumers in regions covered by the cap. (Source: OMIE and Mibgas data.)
Looking at the hourly pattern, the most expensive window is projected between 21:00 and 22:00, when prices may reach as high as 148.9 euros/MWh. Conversely, the cheapest window is anticipated between 16:00 and 17:00, with prices near 70.1 euros/MWh. These intraday variations illustrate how demand, supply, and the gas cap mechanism interact to shape daily price dynamics across the market. (Source: OMIE, Mibgas data.)
For an annual comparison, tomorrow’s price sits roughly half of the 226.93 euros/MWh level seen a year ago, underscoring a notable shift in the Iberian energy market over the past twelve months. (Source: OMIE and Mibgas data.)
Within Portugal, where the gas cap also applies to electricity generation under what is known as the Iberian exception, price parity with Spain is maintained due to the shared market framework. In neighboring regions, price levels vary: in Italy the forecast is around 184.48 euros/MWh; in France about 125.32 euros/MWh; in Germany 95.86 euros/MWh; and in the United Kingdom approximately £110.47 (about 126.92 euros) per MWh. These figures reflect cross-border pricing dynamics among Iberian and European energy markets. (Source: OMIE, Mibgas data.)