Electricity Prices in the Iberian Market Hover Near Stable Levels, Yet Daily Deltas Persist
Electricity costs are projected to slip by approximately 1 percent by the end of this week, with wholesale prices hovering around 205.85 euros per megawatt hour MWh. Market results from wholesale auctions indicate that prices have stayed above the 200-euro mark for two straight days, signaling a cautious trend amid shifting supply and demand dynamics.
Without the Iberian mechanism in place, data from the Iberian Electricity Market Operator OMIE and the Iberian Gas market Mibgas show a potential Thursday wholesale price near 273 euros per MWh. This level would represent about 67 euros more than recent benchmarks, underscoring the impact of the gas price ceiling on electricity generation costs. The Sunday figures reported by Mibgas also highlight ongoing volatility in the gas-to-power linkage.
The final average price emerges from combining the roughly 150 euros per MWh recorded in the US wholesale market with a temporary adjustment that rebates the gas ceiling’s benefits to fuel-intensive plants. This adjustment is estimated to add about 56 euros per MWh for the following day, underscoring how policy levers ripple through the generation stack and ultimately touch consumer-facing prices.
In the hourly bands, the cost trajectory shows a peak between 20:00 and 21:00 at around 176 euros per MWh. The trough occurs from 04:00 to 05:00, when prices dip toward 123.5 euros per MWh, reflecting typical daily demand cycles and the influence of wind, solar, and thermal generation mix on price formation.
Although prices rise in the short term, the current Thursday level remains roughly 17 percent below the same day last year, with an average around 247 euros per MWh. This comparison highlights the relief in wholesale costs despite near-term fluctuations that come from market design, gas pricing, and renewables integration.
November’s average price lands at about 124 euros per MWh, marking the lowest monthly level since August 2021. That puts November on a trajectory that suggests sustained affordability relative to peak periods, even as day-to-day variations continue to surface in the market snapshot.
Looking across the Iberian Peninsula and neighboring economies, the wholesale price forecast suggests a broad dip in the wholesale market absent additional gas caps. The outlook points to Spain maintaining a price level well below peers when not influenced by gas constraints, with relative variance driven by generation mix and import dynamics rather than centralized price caps alone.
On the continental side, France is projected around 391 euros per MWh, Germany near 394.4 euros per MWh, Italy at approximately 384.3 euros per MWh, and the United Kingdom around 338 pounds per MWh, roughly equivalent to 391 euros per MWh in today’s exchange rates. These figures illustrate how regional energy markets respond differently to supply shocks, policy interventions, and fuel mix while still presenting a shared theme of elevated wholesale costs relative to a few years ago.
Analysts emphasize watching how gas prices and market interventions interact with renewables output and cross-border flows. The Iberian market continues to illustrate the delicate balance between price signals that incentivize investment in cleaner energy and the need to maintain affordability for consumers. Observers attribute much of the recent behavior to the interplay between gas constraints, storage levels, wind and solar productivity, and regional electricity interchange patterns, all of which shape day-a-day price formation and yearly averages. For more context, OMIE and Mibgas provide ongoing data streams that investors and policymakers monitor to gauge the health of the wholesale electricity landscape across Iberia and beyond, with attribution to the respective market operators.